by Nelson Nkosi

The ANC is losing its dominance ?

OpinionWay polls South Africa

On May 29, a pivotal moment unfolds in South Africa as nearly 28 million registered voters take to the ballot to make their voices heard and elect the 400 members of the National Assembly and local provincial legislatures.

Our editorial team has presented a preliminary analysis commissioned from the French polling institute OpinionWay. 

We reveal the updated analysis showing a decrease in ANC popularity to 38 percent. In second place, we find the DA at 21%, followed by the EFF at 14%, and the MK party at 13%. Renowned for its neutrality, this poll sheds light on electoral dynamics in South Africa.

Under Nelson Mandela, the ANC led the fight against apartheid. Three decades later, the party is facing mounting criticism for poor governance, unemployment, and a surge in violent crime. Its moral standing and popular support are highly challenged in these elections. Interesting coalitions are expected to emerge.

The poll also shows that 71 % of the voters are expecting a change in the current dynamics, whereas only 27% aspire to maintain continuity.  

Voters are deeply concerned about the rampant unemployment plaguing South Africa, a nation burdened with the distinction of having the world's highest unemployment rate, nearing 33%.

Corruption stands as another formidable challenge, eliciting widespread criticism for its corrosive impact on governance and the absence of transformative strategies to address societal inequities

The specter of crime looms large, fueled by the proliferation of organized crimes. The 2022-23 financial year bore witness to a staggering 1.8 million incidents of serious and violent crimes reported nationwide. Shockingly, an average of 75 murders per day. 

What you need to know about the South African elections ?  

The 2024 elections mark the 7th general elections since democracy in 1994 

  • Proportional representation  :  allocating parliamentary seats to parties based on their national vote share, rather than local constituencies. A crucial approach for the unity of this "rainbow nation". 
  • A new electoral system : strategic votes 

What changes this time is the new system, representing a combination of party lists and individual candidates. 

The voters will get three ballot papers : two national and one provincial . The first national ballot : parties are contesting  200 National Assembly seats across the county The regional ballot in each province : contesting the other 200 hundred seats in the National Assembly The third ballot for the provincial legislatures  ( South Africa has 9 provinces) 

More Choices for the voters : The number of parties increased from 48 in 2019 to 52 in 2024.