African football leaders have agreed to support FIFA in its World Cup project every two years. Real opportunity or danger for football on the continent?
The African Football Confederation (CAF) confirmed by communicated that it would support the plan to organize the World Cup every two years from now on, supported by FIFA and its president, Gianni Infantino.
For the latter, who has been at the head of the international body since 2015, this is a first success for the implementation of this major reform, the aim of which is above all to bring new resources to FIFA. . Its main source of income is, in fact, the World Cup, organized every four years since its creation in 1930. The other FIFA competitions (Women's World Cup, Club World Cup, Men's and Women's World Cups U20 and U17) are not as profitable. Thus, over the period 2011-2014, the 2014 World Cup organized in Brazil represented 4,8 of FIFA's $ 5,7 billion in revenue, or 84,2%. The current cycle, 2019-2022, is largely based on the Qatari meeting of November 2022 and its 4,6 billion revenue planned.
La Confederations Cup, launched in 1992 and discontinued in 2019, has not been commercially successful - although it will have been politically important in demonstrating the universality of football, as it offered the possibility to champion nations of Africa or d 'Asia to play matches against the behemoths of world football. The increase in the number of teams qualified for the final phase of the World Cup (that of 2026, held jointly in the United States, Mexico and Canada, will host 48 teams, against 32 previously) responds to this same political imperative.
The struggle for control of world football
The CAN press release and the commitment of the 52 nations that signed it certainly constitute an important step taken by FIFA in its fight for leadership in football against UEFA, the very powerful European confederation.
Indeed, since 1974 and the election of the Brazilian Joao Havelange at the head of FIFA, the strategies of conquest of power of the world institution are established against Europe. Moreover, UEFA is logically opposed to the change in frequency of the World Cup, estimating through the voice of Aleksander Céférin, its president, that such a reform would risk devalue the competition. A position supported by the Comnebol, the South American Football Confederation. In contrast, the Asian (AFC) and North, Central and Caribbean (Concacaf) confederations are in favor.
It must be said that, for a long time, the last rounds of the World Cups consisted mainly of clashes between European and South American countries. Joao Havelange (1974-1998), then his successor Sepp Blatter (1998-2015) sought to give more space and visibility to other continents, in particular by increasing the number of teams participating in the final phase (from 16 to 24 in 1982, then to 32 in 1998, and therefore to 48 from 2026), which automatically reduces the European share, even if it remains significant (13 teams out of 32 for the 2022 edition).
It should be remembered in this regard that even if the European federations have more financial means, each federation has only one vote in the congresses and general assemblies of FIFA. In other words, the word of France or Germany is worth as much as that of South Sudan or Malaysia.
But since the 1990s and the changes brought about by Bosman and Malaja stops which allow the free movement of players in Europe, as well as the reforms of the flagship club competition, the Champions League, which have increased the number of qualified clubs from the richest countries, club football competes in terms of media exposure with the World Cup. As part of the Champions League, all the best footballers in the world now meet every year and provide Europe with a “cash machine” offering it the financial power and media resonance that FIFA envies it.
FIFA's major maneuvers
A World Cup every two years: the idea had already germinated under Sepp Blatter, but he quickly backpedaled following the outcry from the clubs. This time the project has a good chance to go through.
Worn by Arsène Wenger, a figure of international football, it includes a revamp of the calendar that would allow clubs to benefit from their players twenty days more than in the current formula.
A "gesture" towards the clubs, another towards countries with little global exposure: the plan could win a majority of votes in the FIFA general assembly with an Africa-Asia-Oceania bloc opposed to the Europe-America bloc. South (this last rapprochement has just been manifested by inclusion of South American teams in the next editions of the League of Nations organized by UEFA and so far reserved exclusively for European selections). In the pipeline: a World Cup every two years and a team base increased by 50% (change already approved, in effect from 2026), which allows more money to be returned to the federations (which FIFA has moreover supported during the shutdown period linked to Covid-19).
If we understand the financial stakes for African federations, we would legitimately be entitled to ask the question of CAF's position, and especially of the future of its flagship competition, the African Cup of Nations (CAN), which takes place every two years, or even the African Nations Championship (CHAN), the same format reserved for players playing in Africa.
The difficulties of African football
The African Cup of Nations is the only profitable competition on the continent: marketing and television rights are sold in the form of packages, adding all the competitions organized by CAF (African Champions League, Confederation Cup, women's CAN, CHAN, CAN u20 and CAN U17), but most broadcasters only use the rights to CAN matches.
Outside of CAN, continental competitions organized in Africa often cost more money than they bring in. For example, due to a lack of resources, the allocations of the African Champions League are often too low to cover the costs of participating clubs.
On the other hand, the biennial frequency of the CAN has long been presented as a tool for developing infrastructure, especially sports. It must be said that with its four groups (six since 2019), these are all stadiums that are built or brought up to standard, and which should allow better conditions of practice.
However, the flagship competition of African football is faced with a problem of format and position on the international calendar. Since 2012, the competition has never taken place in the planned country, whether because of uncertain political situations (Libya 2013 et 2017), institutional conflict (Morocco, 2015) or delay in the construction of stadiums (Cameroon, 2019). The 33e edition, which should have taken place this year, has been postponed to January and February 2022 due to Covid-19. And a few weeks before the opening of a competition already disrupted by the delay in the delivery of its main stadium, the Association of European Clubs (ECA) threatens not to release players due to the lack of a health protocol issued by CAF to avoid quarantines on their return.
If replacement solutions have been found each time, the 2015 edition, scheduled for Morocco (with a replacement by Equatorial Guinea at the last moment) symbolizes the difficulties encountered by the competition. The Cherifian kingdom, which had just hosted the Club World Cup with, among others, Real Madrid, asked for a postponement of the CAN in June to better welcome it. But in the background was the problem of the release of African international players playing in Europe (57% during the 2019 edition) that the clubs are reluctant to see go one month in high season.
This dependence on Europe had already led to the passage of competitions between even years to odd years to avoid duplicates in the World Cup years. In 2017, CAF chose to move the competition to June and expand it to 24 teams from the 2019 edition, before going back on this decision for CAN 2021 in Cameroon, for climatic reasons. The 2023 edition is already threatened, the 2022 World Cup in Qatar ending in December, just a few weeks before a possible African competition.
On the other hand, we must also take into account the increased dependence of African football on FIFA over the past five years and the election at the head of CAF of Ahmad Ahmad, first widely supported, then released by Infantino. Bloodless financially after the breach in 2019 (due to a dispute of the procedure) of the contract signed with the marketing agency Lagardère Sport, which was to provide CAF with at least one billion dollars until 2028, the organization hopes to benefit from the fallout from a increase in CAF grants from FIFA. As part of its program FIFA Forward, football development, FIFA finances in fact up to 12 million dollars annually for projects related to the practice of sport-king (and a minimum of one million for each federation). An increase in the institution's income would in fact increase these subsidies, in addition to increasing the amounts donated by TV and marketing rights. On December 20, Gianni Infantino convened by videoconference 207 of the 211 FIFA member federations and pledged an increase in subsidies of 19 million by federation, in cycles of four years.
A shot to play for CAF
What pledge should Africa give? Modify the frequency of its tournament, passing it to a four-year format, as requested by a certain number of players, including Gianni Infantino himself ?
Paradoxically, the move to a World Cup every two years could consolidate the current biennial format. By negotiating that the Africa Cup of Nations becomes a qualifier for the World Cup, CAF would increase the value of its competition by benefiting from the commercial strength of the house of Zurich and could continue to organize it in odd years.
The current situation therefore opens up many possibilities. By negotiating well, the nine African places in the World Cup could go to the four semi-finalists, the other five places being distributed through a system of play-offs with a mix between the twelve eighth finalists and teams according to their FIFA ranking. , which would offer a second chance to the "big" selections who missed their tournament.
One thing is certain, Africa must propose something, at the risk of being only a weapon in the fight for the power of FIFA in the fight against the European and South American confederations. The open international match in Cairo has only just begun. It's up to CAF to play ...
Herve Kouamouo, PhD student in social sciences of sport, Paris Nanterre University - Paris Lumières University
This article is republished from The Conversation under Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.