The interest shown by former President Laurent Gbagbo for the creation of a new party gives the possibility of re-imagining the opposition policy in Côte d'Ivoire.
In early August, the former President of Côte d'Ivoire, Laurent Gbagbo, put forward the idea of creating a new political party. Gbagbo's comments were made when he returned to Côte d'Ivoire on June 26, after being tried before the International Criminal Court for nearly 10 years.
In July 2019, the Court had it acquitted charges of crimes against humanity, including murder, rape and "other inhumane acts" committed during the 2010-2011 post-election violence.
Gbagbo's return was sealed when the Court's appeals chamber confirmed his acquittal in March 2021. President Alassane Ouattara then granted him a diplomatic passport.
Gbagbo's announcement confirms his desire to influence politics in a country where the opposition is divided and where the president is criticized for his third term.
The prospect of a new political party emerging with Gbagbo's blessing could unify the opposition and be a formidable challenge for Ouattara and his ruling coalition. This could give a renewed interest in political participation which has regressed with the successive defeats and boycotts of the opposition.
The main parties
There are three main political parties in Côte d'Ivoire: the Ivorian Popular Front, the Rally of Republicans of Ouattara and its coalition partner, the Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire - African Democratic Rally.
In the 1990s, under Gbagbo, the Ivorian Popular Front was the main opposition party. After the military coup of 1999 and the transitional government chaired by General Robert Guéï, the power of Gbagbo's party and the lack of alternatives allowed him to win the presidential election of 2000.
The Ivorian Popular Front ruled until the disputed presidential elections of 2010. The results of the second round of the election, rejected by Gbagbo, were at the origin of the conflict.
When the party was in power, internal differences arose on the policy to be pursued and on how to deal with the rebels during the civil war that broke out in 2002. Some members wanted Côte d'Ivoire to distance itself from it. -vis of France, while others were more conciliatory; some wanted to negotiate a deal with the rebels, while others sought to win the war militarily.
In the 2010 elections, the divisions deepened. Hard-line supporters close to Gbagbo insisted that he stand firm and refuse to transfer power to Ouattara. Other party members say they had expressed support for a power-sharing government as in the Kenya and Zimbabwe.
Gbagbo's arrest
The biggest disagreement between party leaders was over how to handle Gbagbo's status within the party after his arrest and indictment by the International Criminal Court. Some leaders urged the party to avoid engaging in political activities without the presence of its standard-bearer, Gbagbo, as they believed he would return to the country and reclaim his place politically.
Others, meanwhile, have sought to continue activities and replace Gbagbo at the head of the party. Pascal Affi N'Guessan, former prime minister in the 2000s, thus became the party leader, but he encountered resistance from Gbagbo's allies.
Unlike the latter, N'Guessan was not a popular politician in his party. Gbagbo and his allies declared that N'Guessan taking the Ivorian Popular Front "held hostage, trampling on years of sacrifice by party militants".
Under N'Guessan's leadership, the party has failed to gain wide audience and political influence. Although many small opposition parties boycotted the 2015 elections, N'Guessan obtained a low score of 9,3% of the vote against 83,7% for Ouattara. The former was subsequently allowed to run in the 2020 elections, while Gbagbo was excluded due to the ongoing legal proceedings. The opposition parties, including that of N'Guessan, having boycotted the 2020 elections, Ouattara obtained a third term without opponents.
Vacancy of power
The boycott highlights the void left by the opposition since the disputed 2010 election. According to Gbagbo's followers, this void can only be filled by him. This debate reflects stronger tendencies in relation to the place occupied by Ivorian political parties. Over the past five years, the reconfiguration has evolved, 57% of Ivorians showing not to feel close to a political party.
Citizens are also increasingly critical of the parties in power and the opposition. Confidence in ruling parties, well below 50%, fell to 41% in 2019 and confidence in opposition parties largely stagnated during Gbagbo's absence.
Even though confidence in Ouattara is slightly below 50%, the ruling party is really not living up to expectations.
In recent years, the reconfiguration is also manifesting itself in the electoral preferences of citizens. Support for the Rassemblement des Républicains de Ouattara waned as the latter forged political alliances under the banner of the Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix, which it put forward for the elections. Opposition parties have stagnated, with the Ivorian Popular Front receiving only 12% of self-proclaimed support according to the 2019 Afrobarometer survey.
This reconfiguration gives new movements and political figures (or old figures who invent a new virginity) the opportunity to attract disillusioned voters. In recent years, at least one fifth of Ivorians declared that they would not vote and one in ten said they did not know who to vote for.
This disaffection, which has not yet translated into a coherent opposition movement, probably continues to contribute to the current apathy. In addition, there is a lag between the rejection of a third presidential term and the reality of Ouattara's current third term, and Gbagbo seeks to exploit this discontent.
Perspectives of a new party
The interest shown by Gbagbo in the creation of a new party gives the possibility of reinventing the political opposition in the country and forging new alliances. N'Guessan and his allies insist that any takeover of the Ivorian Popular Front by Gbagbo would be illegal and emblematique of an autocratic policy.
It is not certain that a party supported by Gbagbo would fare better than the Front Populaire Ivoirien. However, with Ouattara's ultimate withdrawal from the political scene and growing discontent, Gbagbo's return to politics could lead to greater political participation.
Another possibility is that Gbagbo's return would help intensify recent efforts by French-speaking countries to reassess their relationship with France and forge new continental relations, as evidenced by Gbagbo's recent trip to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Peter Penar, director of the Leaders of Africa Institute and Research Affiliate with Davidson College, Davidson College
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.