Ukraine: Algeria at the center of the gas geopolitical axis?

The Ukrainian crisis has consequences for Europe's gas supply. The Old Continent is gradually turning towards Algeria to compensate for the energy deficit. Algiers is at the center of the energy battle.

Gas, which represents just over 17% of the world's energy, is 70% controlled by thirteen countries, five of which are African – Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Egypt and Equatorial Guinea. Gathered under the banner of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), these countries held their 6th summit in Doha, Qatar, from Sunday to Tuesday.

"Chance is God walking around incognito", said Einstein. And by coincidence, the biggest gas powers in the world were meeting at the very moment when Ukraine is facing a serious crisis. And as Western dominance begins to falter, the threat of a new Cold War looms.

And if, at the center of this war, natural gas was one of the issues? And if Algeria had a role to play, as a link between the blocs? With Russia and Iran, Algeria is now part of a homogeneous Third World axis, which continues to grow in importance in Africa and in the world.

energy independence, #UE will turn vs #Afrique sub which will produce more gas #Russie 2040 http://t.co/uJLdrdMy75 pic.twitter.com/gwbIt40G4u

— EURACTIV France (@EURACTIV_FR) October 30, 2014

The GECF cements Third Worldism

The GECF is, in a way, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of gas... But for the European Union (EU), which is more than 55% dependent on natural gas from Algeria and Russia, the situation is complex.

When the Algerian state major Sonatrach signed its alliance with the Russian company Gazprom in 2007, it was the Ukrainian journalist Roman Kupchinsky who announced the birth of “gas OPEC”. And now that the standoff between Moscow and NATO has deprived the EU of a large part of its gas supply, Europe has only one solution: to turn to Algeria.

Especially since the United States feels little concerned by the gas component of the Ukrainian impasse. Washington is considering sanctions against Moscow, while Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of two pro-Russian Ukrainian regions on Monday. In other words, European energy interests are taking a back seat for the Biden administration.

Read: Algeria-Russia: trade, gas… and hypersonic weapons?

On the diplomatic level, if a rapprochement between Iran and Qatar threatens Western interests, the diplomacy of the Democratic Party of Joe Biden makes that, today, the United States thinks more about concluding the Iranian nuclear agreement. of negotiations than to make the interests of their Arab allies prevail.

Thus, the GECF 2022 was held in a particular context. The main gas-producing countries, under Western pressure, find themselves in a position of strength in their relations with the United States. Or, at least, free to choose the union, despite the will of the EU, which can only observe the situation without really having any decision-making power.

No price drop

At the top of the GECF, therefore, the Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, aware of the importance of his position in the current gas crisis, made a speech full of meaning. “My country is known to be a reliable distributor of gas (…) and intends to remain so,” Tebboune said. Before continuing: "the Forum must become a more present and dynamic player, particularly in terms of cooperation between member countries in this area".

When talking about the first item on the agenda, namely the soaring natural gas prices, which is one of the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Algerian head of state said he was "concerned" as for the "unilateral restrictions against member countries (of the GECF, therefore Russia, editor's note) which negatively affect the development and trade of natural gas". An observation shared by the assembly of the GECF, despite the presence of Egyptians, Norwegians and even Emiratis.

Read: Algeria, justice of the peace between Europe and Russia?

In other words, the GECF does not intend to lower gas prices. And if the EU finds itself forced to break its gas agreements with Russia, the increase in production from other gas-producing countries will not be accompanied by a drop in prices. On the contrary, a price increase is even expected.

Lifting the embargo on Iran, the solution?

If the assembly of the GECF was marked by support for Russia by the member countries, it also undertook to "to respect its gas commitments vis-à-vis the world market", in the words of Vladimir Putin. Qatar, for its part, insisted on dissociating the gas crisis from the Ukrainian conflict.

But it was above all Nigeria that created the surprise. “There is no reason to increase oil production within OPEC (to compensate for the energy gap, editor's note). We expect an increase in gas production from Iran, especially if the nuclear agreement is successful,” Nigerian Oil Minister Timipre Sylva said simply.

The Nigerian minister highlights the need to lift the embargo on Iran to balance the energy market. "We don't have to increase production, if they (the Iranians) are able to produce."

This position of support for the lifting of the sanctions imposed on Iran is also shared by Qatar. Indeed, for Iranian President Ebrahim Raïssi, the GECF was an opportunity to make his first trip to an Arab country, and to his first meeting with the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.

At this gas axis which is being created in a tense geopolitical context, the presence of three other leaders, African this time, could not have been better.

Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea, Libya… almost homogeneous agendas

Indeed, Mozambique and Equatorial Guinea were represented by their respective presidents, Filipe Nyusi and Teodoro Obiang. Libya, by Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dbeibah.

According to diplomatic sources, Nyusi would seek to “expand his list of contacts, before relaunching gas exploitation in the Rovuma basin”. Indeed, the 16 Mozambican gas blocks abandoned by Total are the subject of a call for tenders which should last until October 2022. Unless, of course, a State experienced in gas extraction wins the 92 000 square kilometers available.

For Obiang, who intends to consolidate his military alliance with Russia and increasingly sees its relationship with France deteriorating, since the conviction of his son, and vice-president, by French justice in July, the GECF 2022 was timely.

“The defense of the interests of the member states of the GECF comes under the sovereignty of our resources. It requires continuous cooperation and dialogue, said Teodoro Obiang. Solidarity is the first principle to adhere to, as it will lead to equal opportunities and economic sovereignty.

Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibah, for his part, announced the launch of the exploitation of new oil fields. But it was above all his Oil Minister who accompanied him, Mohamed Aoun, who had an important role in meeting his Russian counterpart on Monday. The communiqué of the meeting speaks of the activation of the gas agreements made with Russia on November 17th.

Agreements which could take the form of a tripartite alliance, after the signing, on February 10, of of a memorandum of understanding between the Algerian Sonatrach and the Libyan National Oil Corporation.