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Uganda: has Museveni's son already lost the presidential election?

Dismissed from his post at the head of the army, can the son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni still claim to succeed his father to the presidency?

Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, is seen as one of his father's potential successors as leader of the country. In particular since June 2021: the president had then appointed Muhoozi Kainerugaba to the post of commander of the army, who was also senior presidential adviser in charge of special operations. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, on the occasion of his 48th birthday last April, had shown his ambitions by partying with Paul Kagame, the Rwandan president, and with an audience of handpicked guests.

However, officially, "Muhoozia" has never claimed to want to succeed his father and willingly lets the media and observers comment on the situation without intervening. And it was not his appointment to third place in the Ugandan military organization chart that was going to calm speculation on the dolphin's future.

It must be said that, among the four children of Museveni and the First Lady, Muhoozi Kainerugaba is the only one to have chosen the army. In 2009, he became commander of the Special Forces Group. “Muhoozia” is then scrutinized by the executives of the ruling party, who see him as the future Ugandan president. Tipped to run in 2016, his time will not come in the end.

Towards a fratricidal struggle?

In 2017, "Muhoozia" was not excluded from politics, however, quite the contrary: he became an adviser to the president, but he had many internal opponents. In particular from Museveni's ex-companion, Amama Mbabazi, former Prime Minister, who would see himself taking over from the Head of State.

An option which, after the dismissal of “Muhoozia”, could turn out to be more and more credible. But in fact, Muhoozi Kainerugaba was replaced by General Muhanga Kayanja, whose brother Andrew Mwenda is close to… Kainerugaba. And the Museveni son is far from out of the running: he has indeed been promoted to the rank of four-star general.

Despite appearances, "Muhoozia" certainly does not have the indestructible status of dolphin, but he remains in the race for the high office. Certainly, Museveni is not yet decided to leave the presidency of the country. But he already has an interest in appointing his successor to avoid a fratricidal war within the presidential party.

Still, the outings of his son on social networks could cost him dearly. Because Museveni Junior, who had just posted on Twitter that it would take "two weeks for his army to capture Nairobi", the capital of neighboring Kenya, is a regular at shocking phrases. In 2026, "Muhoozia" hopes to be nominated as a candidate. To do this, he will first have to leave the army and obtain his father's approval.

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