Since COP27, the media have mentioned a desire on the part of Tunis to normalize its relations with Israel. But with Kaïs Saïed in power, it seems almost impossible.
The scene may be anecdotal, it has caused controversy in Tunisia. A smile exchanged between the head of the Tunisian government Najla Bouden and the Israeli president Isaac Herzog indeed caused a lot of talk, at the time of the 2022 Sharm el-Sheikh Conference on climate change (COP27). A scene which, beyond the simple controversy, revived the debate on the normalization of relations between Tunisia and Israel. The Abraham Accords bring together too few Arab and Muslim countries to have any weight. The United States and the signatory countries of these agreements would therefore necessarily be happy to see Tunisia ratify them. But the courteous exchanges between Bouden and Herzog appear to be more symbolic than political. And it seems unlikely that Tunisia will join the list of signatories to the Abraham Accords.
In any case, that is not likely to happen under the presidency of Kaïs Saïed. The Tunisian president had indeed shown his anger at the time of the creation of the Abraham Accords. Saïed had referred to normalization with the Jewish state as being a “supreme betrayal” and the “injustice of the century”. In May 2021, when questioned by France 24 on the subject, he even said: “It is not a normal situation for a human being to live under the Occupation, and it is not normal for you to have relations with the occupier. A year later, Kaïs Saïed's remarks had been confirmed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which had indicated that Tunisia was "not interested in establishing relations with the occupying entity", preferring to remain "a support official and popular” to Palestine.
But isn't the speech a simple facade speech? “Kaïs Saïed has strong convictions on this subject and he will certainly not waver on this point”, indicates an observer of Tunisian political life. Still, the international press, and Moroccan in particular, has regularly assured that Tunis actually wanted to sign the Abraham Accords, but that the country was under pressure from its neighbor, Algeria. “Impossible,” retorts our specialist. Opposition to Israel is one of the most important elements of Kais Saied's program during his presidential campaign, so there is no question of going back on it”.
The Tunisian people side with the Palestinians
And on the contrary, since Kaïs Saïed took over the palace of Carthage, Tunisia has moved even further away from Israel, with whom it had previously had sporadic relations. We remember that, as soon as he took office, Saïed had dismissed his Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, Abdelkrim Zbidi and Khemaies Jhinaoui, while the latter was accused of having sent a delegation to Israel. At the time of dictator Ben Ali, relations with Tel Aviv were even rather cordial: a liaison office had moreover been set up in Israel.
Kaïs Saïed promised to “support just causes, including that of Palestine” until the end of his mandate. His "Arab nationalism" will prevent him from departing from his principles. Especially since he can count on significant popular support. And that if the Abraham Accords are signed, there is no doubt that the popular uprising would be memorable and risky for the president.
If Egypt and Morocco are in favor of a normalization of Tunisian-Israeli relations, just like the United States and the United Arab Emirates, Algiers would view such a step with a dim view. And if the signing of economic agreements with Tel-Aviv would allow Tunis to emerge from the difficult crisis that the country is going through, the repercussions for Kaïs Saïed would be extremely negative. Sufficient not to consider any normalization and to remain, for the president, camped on his positions.