Tshisekedi, Kagame and Macron: a diplomatic chess game

Emmanuel Macron will meet Félix Tshisekedi tomorrow. The French and Congolese presidents should discuss the very thorny issue of M23 and Rwanda.

This Saturday, Emmanuel Macron will begin the fourth and final leg of his African mini-tour, started in Gabon during the One Forest Summit. After Libreville, the French president traveled to Angola, where he met João Lourenço. Between the two presidents, there was talk of the help that Paris can provide to develop agriculture. After his brief visit to Luanda, Emmanuel Macron headed for Congo-Brazzaville to meet with Denis Sassou N'Guesso. Before crossing the river towards Kinshasa, the next night.

What will be discussed between the French head of state and his Congolese counterpart Félix Tshisekedi? Inevitably, the latter should address a subject that is close to his heart. Absent from the One Forest Summit, the Congolese president traveled to Switzerland on Monday to speak before the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. Tshisekedi wanted to report on the “most abominable human atrocities” committed in the Democratic Republic of Congo for thirty years and to deplore the “impunity” of Rwanda in the conflict which affects the east of the country.

Towards a new condemnation of Rwanda?

Inevitably, the Congolese president should discuss with Emmanuel Macron the situation on the spot. While DRC accuses Rwanda of supporting M23, the French head of state is in a very delicate position: Macron has gone out of his way to reconcile his country with Rwanda, two years ago. And it is hard to see the French president letting go of his ally, Paul Kagame.

But after a year-long conflict, the DRC and Rwanda are close to a diplomatic stalemate. And despite a promise of a ceasefire decided last month, the situation has changed little. On the contrary, the M23 continues to take territories in the region.

On the side of Tshisekedi, we expect in any case unambiguous support from the French president. The DRC considers that Rwanda, by supporting the M23, has attacked its sovereignty. And Felix Tshisekedi expects a clear position from Emmanuel Macron. He does not imagine that the latter can defend Paul Kagame.

But the French president actually has three solutions. The first: kicking into touch. After his speech to outline the features of France's new African policy, during which he advocated “a new relationship, balanced, reciprocal and responsible. “, the Head of State could very well position himself above the fray and let the two countries, the DRC and Rwanda, settle their dispute between them. Except that, last December, Chrysoula Zacharopoulou, French Secretary of State, went to Kinshasa and deplored "Rwanda's support for the M23". Which leads to a second option, that of condemning Rwanda again.

Mediation, the only option?

At the time, the discourse was clear — and very official, aligned with that of the West. It was a question of positioning oneself in favor of Kinshasa. “Rwanda, because it must be named, must end its support for the M23. We must put an end to the repetition of history in this region,” said the Secretary of State. Difficult today to go against this declaration for the French president. But as we have seen with Morocco, Paris is quite badly on board in Africa and is therefore now trying to position itself diplomatically in a fairly neutral way.

The third option for Emmanuel Macron would be to pose as a mediator on the issue. Since last September, discussions have been taking place between the French, Rwandan, Congolese and Ugandan intelligence services. Paul Kagame has already been able to meet, in the United States, with Paul Kagame, under the aegis of Emmanuel Macron. But since then, the file seems frozen.

Emmanuel Macron could again play the appeasement card and promise to speak, again, to Paul Kagame. He will also try to praise the merits of the East African Regional Force (EAC) and highlight the role of Kenya, where the DRC is not convinced.

We understood it during his speech before his tour: Emmanuel Macron wants to talk to everyone. Still, he will have to convince Felix Tshisekedi to be patient. Because the Congolese president is now exasperated by Rwanda's attitude. And he would take a dim view of inaction on the part of the Élysée.