The 2024 presidential election promises to be hotly contested and represents a major challenge for the Senegalese who will remain the masters of the game.
In July 2022, Senegalese voters surrendered to the polls to elect the 165 deputies who will represent them in the National Assembly.
Despite a tense campaign, low voter turnout (by 46%) and calls from the opposition to secure the vote in certain localities, the ballot went well.
Of the eight major political coalitions engaged in the electoral race, two emerged victorious. The stakes were high: barely six months before the election, the ruling coalition Benno Bokk Yakaar had lost the main cities during municipal and departmental elections. As the legislative elections approached, some commentators had suggested that the performance of the coalition would be indicative of support for the President-in-Office, Macky Sall, and his possible attempt to run for a third term in 2024.
Overall, the legislative elections served as a test for the opposition and the electorate to keep democracy afloat and to contain President Macky Sall's ambition to stay in power.
Opposition gains ground
Here is the message that the legislative elections seemed to send: Benno Bokk Yakaar's electorate has shrunk further, especially in urban areas, while in towns and villages, the coalition Yewwi Askan Wi Wallu, made up of two opposition groups, won a landslide victory.
In the end, Benno Bokk Yakaar won 82 seats and Yewwi Askan Wi 80.
For the first time in the political history of Senegal, an opposition front succeeded in defeating the presidential coalition and imposing a divided parliament without an absolute majority.
This breakthrough of the opposition can be attributed to the sharp drop in the popularity of Sall and his coalition. Moreover, the electorate is increasingly expressing its desire for transparency, justice and improved socio-economic conditions.
The alliance of two main opposition coalitions also played a key role, this political strategy having in effect defeated the presidential camp.
The alliance has also benefited from "Sonkomania", the wave of popular support for Ousmane Sonko, 48 years old. Sonko came to the political scene in 2014 when he formed his political party, the Patriots of Senegal for work, ethics and fraternity. He remains popular despite a accusation of rape against him still pending before the court, and which, according to him, would have a political motive.
Sonko himself was unable to run for the legislative elections: indeed, the main list of candidates to which he belonged was disqualifiedfor having registered a candidate on two lists. However, he remained (with Barthelemy Dias, mayor of Dakar), the standard-bearer of Yewwi Askan Wi. It is considered that the support of voters for this coalition is largely due to the mobilization around Ousmane Sonko because of his popularity and the criticisms he formulates against the ruling class.
Sonko's image as an incorruptible former civil servant and anti-system politician drew more voters to Yewwi Askan Wi. Sonko has promised to hold the executive to account for these financial scandals through parliamentary action and he has a strong presence online and on the ground to mobilize supporters. It is on this image that the Yewwi Askan Wi-Wallu coalition built its electoral campaign.
All eyes are now on the 2024 presidential election. The ruling coalition's major setback sheds new light on what might happen next.
The presidential election in sight promises to be hotly contested and represents a major challenge for the Senegalese who will remain the masters of the game.
Who is Ousmane Sonko?
After obtaining a master's degree in public law in 1999 from Gaston Berger University, Sonko joined the prestigious National School of Administration.
As a tax inspector, he held a high-ranking position in the Senegalese civil service before being deregistered in 2016 for having exposed and denounced the dishonest practices of the national administration.
In 2017, he was elected to the National Assembly and gradually became the main voice of the opposition. In March 2021, he is stopped for disturbing public order, while he was on his way to court for the opening of legal proceedings against him. His supporters had followed his convoy to court and demonstrated under the banner of the opposition. The situation had escalated as the police tried to disperse them. Subsequently, Sonko was arrested for disturbing public order and participating in an unauthorized demonstration.
These facts had triggered an unprecedented uprising, and demonstrations had paralyzed the main cities. The demonstrators had destroyed public infrastructure and French businesses had been looted. Fourteen people lost their lives and more than 600 others were seriously injured. For many, the arrest of a major opposition figure following demonstrations by his supporters was an attack on democracy.
These events solidified popular support for Sonko and enhanced his stature as a serious presidential candidate and opposition leader.
Given his third-place finish in the 2019 election and broadening his political base, Sonko could certainly prevail in a runoff election in 2024. His eligibility will, however, be determined by the outcome of the rape trial.
Outlook for 2024
Much of the uncertainty around 2024 stems from whether Macky Sall will decide to run for a third term. So far, he has refused to give an answer, which has affected his popularity.
For the Senegalese electorate, the long presidencies of Leopold Senghor (20 ans) et d'Abdou Diouf (19 years old) belong to a bygone era.
The country has accepted the idea of a two-term presidency and the incumbent's state of grace does not last more than a decade, as Sall's predecessor discovered, Abdoulaye Wade.
However, should Sall decide to run for a third term, he will have to overcome some difficulties.
The first being the Constitutional Council, which will rule on the legality of his candidacy.
He will then have to face several opposition figures: Sonko of course, but also possibly Barthelemy Dias, and maybe Khalifa Sall (former mayor of Dakar) and Karim Wade.
None of the candidates is likely to win a majority of votes (50% plus one) in the first round. But as Sall well knows, in 2000 and 2012, the incumbent president lost elections in a runoff.
If Sall does not run, his party will still find itself in a difficult situation because it has not prepared a national figure likely to take over. But it may be too late for that.
Sonko is in a good position for the 2024 elections – especially if he manages to score points with the rural electorate, which would boost his already strong popularity among the urban electorate.
Implications for Senegalese democracy
Some believe that the Sonko candidacy represents a new milestone for representative democracy, accountability and the quality of democracy.
By keeping his distance from the coalition of the incumbent President, he was able to express a dissenting point of view against the ruling class and stand out from his seasoned rivals.
He owes his electoral base to his reputation as a whistleblower as well as to the importance he attaches to issues related to debt, the exploitation of natural resources, poverty, the lack of funding for health and education and corruption.
His reputation as a whistleblower continues to motivate electoral support, notably thanks to the attention he gives to issues such as debt, the exploitation of natural resources, poverty, the lack of funding for health systems and education and corruption.
Rachel Beatty Riedl, Professor of International Studies, Cornell University; Bamba Ndiaye, Assistant Professor, Emory Universityand Oumar Ba, Assistant Professor of International Relations, Cornell University
This article is republished from the site The Conversation under Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.