Senegal: Can Macky Sall not complete his second term?

The situation deteriorated further in Senegal, after the conviction of Ousmane Sonko for “youth corruption”. Is Macky Sall's future compromised? Even within the presidential coalition, some are wondering.

After the start of demonstrations against power, Senegal is already counting its dead. Forty-eight hours after the conviction of Ousmane Sonko in his trial for "corruption of youth", to two years in prison, on June 1, there were already around fifteen deaths. And we saw it during the last riots, the situation could worsen. Ineligible, Ousmane Sonko launched hostilities a few days before his sentencing by organizing a "freedom caravan". He intends to lead a "final fight" against President Macky Sall. Today, the opponent claims to be "sequestered". And in the streets, the tone has gone up a notch in recent days.

Something to worry about President Macky Sall, whose government has restricted access to social networks. A strategic error, in a country where Facebook, WhatsApp or Twitter are important for young people. For the government, it is officially a question of putting an end to "the dissemination of hateful and subversive messages". But, while Senegal was once presented as an exemplary democracy and one of the most stable countries in Africa, in particular thanks to the three peaceful political alternations since 1960, the opposition now cries out for authoritarianism. At the heart of the debate, the potential third term to which Macky Sall could apply, considered illegal by part of the population.

Demonstrators, hackers, allies… The danger can come from anywhere

If all eyes are on the street, Macky Sall is now under attack on several fronts. The cyberattacks of recent days are proof of this. To protest against the "disappearance" of Ousmane Sonko, several websites, including that of the presidency, have been hacked by hackers who claim to support the opponent. "The State of Senegal will be firm", assures the government following the events that have occurred in the country, both in the streets and on the web. But for the Senegalese president, the danger could also come from within. For several years, Macky Sall's political strategy has been clear: it was about separating from his allies and offering positions to his opponents. A policy modeled on those of his predecessors, Abdou Diouf and Abdoulaye Wade.

Problem: by bringing the wolves into the sheepfold, the Senegalese president has potentially put himself in danger. "Keep your friends close, but your enemies even closer", it is often said. If Macky Sall opted for the second option, he forgot the importance of keeping his allies by his side. By dismissing Ibrahima Abou Nguette, Ansoumana Danfa, ex-charge de mission at the presidency of the Republic, Idrissa Seck or even Aminata Touré, who had led the last legislative campaign for him, the Head of State has weakened his own base. and created an imbalance which, when protest invades the streets of Dakar, risks being fatal to him.

Dissension within his own camp

No longer having as comfortable a majority as before in the National Assembly, Macky Sall is therefore politically weakened. He must also deal with the voices which, internally, are against a third term. Within the presidential coalition, allies are already protesting against the president's silence, which says a lot about his ambitions. Thus, Alioune Sarr, former Minister of Tourism and Air Transport and former key man in the system, has decided to stand against Macky Sall after clearly opposing a possible third term. Cheikh Ndiaye, for his part, urges the presidential coalition to position itself, considering that it is "embarked on a dead end". Other personalities close to the president could, in the near future, publicly release Macky Sall. Especially since, according to our information, the Senegalese president and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron are cold, precisely because of Macky Sall's desire to run in 2024.

"The art of war is to subjugate the enemy without a fight", wrote Sun Tzu in his famous book "The Art of War". Despite some attempts by Macky Sall to nip the opposition in the bud, as some African heads of state have succeeded in doing in their own countries, this opposition has, in recent years, never been on the ground. . Which could have paved the way for him to a third term. Worse, with an unsuccessful game of chess, consisting in promoting and then dismissing certain influential political figures, "the revolt could come from within", indicates a source close to the ruling coalition. If Macky Sall asked himself the question of a third term, he will actually have to, first of all, make sure he can finish his second term. And try, before convincing the people, to convince his own camp to support him to the end.