Next Monday, Rwanda will reopen its land border with Uganda. A decision that puts an end to 33 months of disputes and decades of tension in the region.
Is this the end of Rwanda's isolation? This is what seems to be foreseen with the announcement of the Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Vincent Biruta, concerning the planned opening of the borders between Uganda and Rwanda, scheduled for Monday. "Rwanda believes that this announcement will contribute to the rapid normalization of relations between the two countries," reads the Rwandan statement.
A return to relations between neighboring countries which is the result of the visit last Saturday to Kigali by the adviser and son of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. Indeed, Lieutenant-General Muhoozi Kainerugaba had met Rwandan President Paul Kagame during this visit. An agreement therefore seems to have been reached to "overcome the obstacles standing in the way of the friendship of neighboring countries".
Statement on the re-opening of the Gatuna border post with the Republic of Uganda pic.twitter.com/CdPkvcyNJp
— Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Int'l Cooperation (@RwandaMFA) January 27, 2022
Rwanda seeks to avoid isolation
The closure of the borders between Rwanda and Uganda in March 2019 had disrupted trade links across the region. Indeed, the two countries depend on the Northern Corridor, the transport route starting at the Kenyan port of Mombasa, for the transport of import-export products and goods.
The rupture had, above all, put a stop to Rwandan foreign trade. Because for the Kenyan authorities, Uganda is an inevitable passage of the Northern Corridor. For its part, Kigali had bet on the Central Corridor, which passes through Dar es Salaam, the Tanzanian capital.
However, between the death of former Tanzanian President John Magufuli and the return of relations between Kenya and Tanzania under Samia Suluhu Hassan, Rwanda increasingly sees this commercial relationship under threat, and the interests of its three neighbors align.
If Kigali is reaching out to Kampala, then, it is above all to avoid economic isolation. But, also, because of the security issue in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is of growing interest to Rwanda. Paul Kagame has made “military diplomacy” the cornerstone of his regional strategy.
Does Kagame want to participate in Uganda's operation in the DRC?
During a recent interview, Paul Kagame had, indeed, deplored that the DRC and Uganda did not notify him of the launch of joint military operations on November 30. “We were not warned by either the DRC or Uganda. It was only after a month that we received an explanation,” he said.
The joint military operation in the eastern DRC aims to hunt down terrorists from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). “A regional threat”, according to Paul Kagame, who affirms that his country is also targeted by the rebel group, especially since the Rwandan intervention in Mozambique.
“The ADF terrorist group is a real problem, which is not just Uganda's. This situation affects the DRC and also affects us, like the rest of the region. Within the ADF, there are Ugandans, Congolese, Rwandans, Burundians, Kenyans and Tanzanians,” Kagame said.
But, really, sending military aid has been Kagame's diplomatic argument for several years. Especially since with the efficiency of the Rwandan forces deployed within the framework of the SADC or other international forces, Kigali always tends to highlight this asset. Nevertheless, Uganda and Rwanda have almost reached the end of their differences thanks to intense discussions.
A direct diplomacy that ignores differences
Uganda has still not reacted to the announcement of Rwandan diplomacy. However, shortly after Muhoozi Kainerugaba and Paul Kagame met, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni had his head of military intelligence, Abel Kandiho, replaced. The latter had often been accused by Kigali of kidnapping Rwandan nationals.
The two presidents of Uganda and Rwanda maintain a historic friendship. Museveni and Kagame were close allies in the 1980s. And Kagame grew up in Uganda, and cut his teeth in a guerrilla unit resisting the regime of Idi Amin Dada, under Museveni's command.
The rivalry between the two presidents is therefore purely political. But it seems that the sending of Museveni's son and adviser to Kigali, like the reopening of the borders by Kagame, are the fruit of a common desire for appeasement.
However, under the aegis of Angolan President João Lourenço and his Congolese counterpart Félix Tshisekedi, mediation was attempted in 2020. In vain. And because, in particular, of the use by Rwanda of the Israeli spy software Pegasus, in order to spy on Ugandan officials. Accusations rejected by Kigali, but which made believe in the poisoning of relations between neighboring countries.