While the Tunisian president dreams of a presidential regime, a "referendum front" has launched to demand a popular consultation on the subject.
In Tunisia, in the absence of constitutional coup, can President Kaïs Saïed see his powers strengthened? The political blockage and crisis that have been brewing for several months could in any case work in its favor. And to do this, the Head of State could have the support of the people, if the latter were called upon to give their opinion at the ballot box. However, there remains a brake on a potential referendum: the deputies, who take a dim view of the loss of part of their prerogatives.
Everything starts from a new "referendum front" in Tunisia. Launched by the Soumoud coalition and several representatives of civil society, this front organized a press conference last Monday and delivered its objectives, including that of demanding a change in the political regime and the electoral law in force.
The “referendum front”, according to the general coordinator of the Soumoud coalition, Houssem Hammi, calls for the organization of a popular referendum with a view to changing the political system in Tunisia. The movement starts from a simple observation: “The political regime in place has proven its failure. The political class is incapable of reforming itself from the inside and the solution, the last word must go to the Tunisians, ”believes the Coalition Soumoud, which therefore brought together political parties, organizations - such as the Tunisian League for Citizenship or Sit coordination. -in du Bardo— and national figures to support his initiative.
Who is the Soumoud coalition for?
Kaïs Saïed has never hidden his ambitions to change the current regime - parliamentary, since 1976 - into a presidential regime. What upset some of his opponents, like Rached Ghannouchi, boss of the Islamist party Ennahdha, who calls for a "total parliamentary regime". In front of an audience of guests, President Saïed, on June 15, widely criticized the Assembly of People's Representatives (ARP) and the Constitution.
A lawyer by training, Kaïs Saïed aborted the national dialogue advocated by the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT) and advocates, for his part, a simple "preparatory dialogue for another dialogue". Objective: launch a popular consultation platform and highlight the concept of direct democracy. He ultimately did not have to launch the platform, since the "referendum front" serves him on a plateau this direct democracy.
Especially since, if there is a referendum, it will aim to adopt a presidential regime. According to the Soumoud coalition, this referendum would symbolize an end to the crisis. Several prominent figures on the political scene have given their support to the front: Saïd Aïdi, former minister and founder of the Bani Watani party, or Mohsen Marzouk have indeed said that they wanted to be part of this front, or at least the to support.
Parliament, the main obstacle to the referendum?
Several problems, however, risk derailing the "referendum front". The President of the Republic has the full right to request a popular consultation. But the request must pass through the ARP. This is where the shoe pinches: it is hard to imagine the deputies accepting a referendum which would give them fewer prerogatives if the people so decide. However, for this popular consultation to take place, two-thirds of the Assembly must approve the request. And bringing together at least 145 elected officials seems impossible.
Half-heartedly, Hassouna Nasfi, the president of the La Réforme parliamentary bloc, indicates that only a constitutional coup will make it possible to change the regime. Because, he says, “it is impossible to muster 145 or even a simple majority of 109 votes in the ARP. This hampers everything, there is no possibility of amending the electoral code or the political system through the Assembly ”. And in the event of an institutional coup, several international organizations, such as the African Union, have already warned Tunisia that it risks heavy sanctions.
This is a dilemma that presents itself to President Kaïs Saïed, who would see himself circumventing the Constitution to achieve his ends. To do this, Saïed could rely on the vagueness that reigns in the texts. The absence, for example, of a Constitutional Court is, in this case, a godsend for him. Tunisian observers even believe that the referendum, or in any case post-consultation management, is not really envisaged by the Constitution. Suffice to say that the outlines of the “referendum front” project have not yet been drawn and that the current political blockage may well be right about this new initiative.