In Nigeria, three days before the presidential election, Peter Obi is the favorite in the polls. A first for the Labor Party, which hopes to titillate the country's two historic formations, the APC and the PDP.
Usually, Nigerian elections boil down to a duel between the candidate of the Congress of Progressives (APC), the party currently in power, and that of the People's Democratic Party (PDP). But this February 25, a grain of sand could stop the two machines. It was last September that the polls began to favor Peter Obi, the Labor Party candidate. A survey by the American company Premise Data Corp. even announced him, at the time, winner in the first round.
This election is a great first for Peter Obi: the businessman, who was several times governor of Anambra State, had been appointed running mate of Atiku Abubakar, the PDP candidate, during the presidential election of 2019. In 2022, Obi leaves the machine that is the PDP to join the Labor Party. With very limited representation in the House of Representatives and the Senate, no one would have bet a naira on the Labor Party at the time. Finally, we will have to count on this political formation on February 25th.
Two electoral machines, one outsider
However, the Labor Party is nothing compared to the two electoral machines that are the PDP and the APC. But Obi was able to seduce a neglected youth, in particular by handling social networks with a masterful hand. “If he is well placed in the polls and has a high popularity rating, that does not mean that he will win the ballot, nuance an observer of Nigerian political life. Because a party must know how to mobilize voters and the Labor Party does not really have experience in this area”. Especially with a country that matters 93 million voters and nearly 180 polling stations.
While waiting for the fateful day, Obi continues to mobilize his troops. And to seduce an electorate who expected change. And Peter Obi could well represent this new wind. First, because the former governor of Anambra presents a positive balance sheet for this state located in the south-east of Nigeria. When he took office, Anambra was on the verge of bankruptcy. Obi transformed him, believe his supporters. And then, the current situation, marked by the economic crisis, shows the failures of the PDP and the APC, the two historical formations of the country. Part of the electorate rejects this system and hopes for something new.
It's now or never ! “, insists Peter Obi on social networks. A slogan – a hashtag, too – with which the businessman who has entered politics hopes to shake up Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu, respective candidates of the PDP and the APC. The latter two remain convinced of being able to be elected, whether in the first or second round. But deep down, they also know that a surprise cannot be ruled out. And the rise of Peter Obi has reason to worry them. The latter could well play the spoilsport in the coming days.