In Libya, the Benghazi alliance, led by Aguila Salah, seems determined to appoint a new government this Tuesday, February 8. But is it really possible?
A broad consensus that does not speak its name is forming in Libya. But against all odds, the tendency is rather to maintain the government of national unity (GNU) of Abdel Hamid Dbeibah, and in search of a date for the constitutional referendum and for the elections, already postponed twice.
For its part, the alliance formed by Aguila Salah, Ahmed Miitig, Fathi Bachagha and Khalifa Haftar is increasingly isolated. The four eastern leaders continue to support the agenda of Salah, who would see himself replacing Abdel Hamid Dbeibah as head of government.
But the cards could well be reshuffled: the vice-president of the House of Representatives (HoR) - the Tobruk Parliament led by Aguila Salah -, Fawzi al-Nuwairi, held a meeting with 62 MPs to thwart Salah's plans. Al-Nuwairi called for Tuesday's parliamentary session to find a date for the next elections, but ruled out the appointment of a new prime minister.
Aguila Salah's “stillborn” initiative?
As a reminder, Aguila Salah had already unilaterally opened applications for the position at the end of January. Several candidates have presented themselves, notably Salah's two political allies, Ahmed Miitig and Fathi Bachagha.
Nevertheless, without the support of his deputies, Aguila Salah will find it difficult to establish the authority of a Prime Minister whom he would appoint alone. Without forgetting that, from the start, the decision to change the head of government, taken by Benghazi, seemed impossible to apply.
What the head of the Senate, Khaled al-Mishri, recalled this Sunday. The head of the High Council of State (HCS) warned that, in the event that the HoR considered a "unilateral change in executive authority", this decision would be "stillborn".
On the side of Western diplomacy, we abound in this direction. The acting head of UNSMIL, the American Stephanie Williams, had already announced that she was against any change at the head of the executive.
According to Africa Intelligence, the diplomat would have threatened the marshal of the east, also an ally of Aguila Salah, Khalifa Haftar, that his trial for "war crimes" could resume in the United States. A Sword of Damocles supposed to dissuade Haftar from agreeing with Aguila Salah.
Turkey and Russia on the same wavelength
Another surprise is the consensus on the transition roadmap, which is not only supported by the Americans, the UN and the authorities in Tripoli. Turkey and Russia both seem determined to block Aguila Salah.
For Ankara, it is a question of pursuing the only agenda which will make it possible, at the same time, to create unity between the east and the west of Libya, but also to envisage a Turkish presence in Benghazi, where Ankara intends to open a consulate .
On the Russian side, against all odds, the second wave of the withdrawal of Wagner's forces began this Sunday, with the repatriation of more than 300 Syrian mercenaries, working as guards for the oil installations controlled by Haftar. This is the second brigade repatriated by Wagner, after the withdrawal of the 42nd brigade stationed in Al Djoufrah, in central Libya, in January.
A movement of Wagner probably guided by Russia, which in turn finds itself on the same wavelength with the agreement between the Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov and the head of the Presidential Council, Mohammed el-Menfi.
The two men had met in Addis Ababa last Saturday. Bogdanov, for his part, announced Moscow's support for a solution that would lead to elections in Libya, if they were held in a climate of peace and national unity.
El-Menfi, for his part, called on Russia to support the repatriation of foreign fighters. A position that the Libyan president also held before the Assembly of the African Union, where he urged leaders to take up the cause of a sovereign Libyan transition.