President Museveni refused Russian fuel, under pressure from Washington. Blackmail that could cost the East African country dearly.
American blackmail worked. Forced to choose between Moscow and Washington, Uganda agreed to respond favorably to the White House's ultimatum. After the announcement of an import of Russian fuel in Kampala, the United States had indeed put pressure on Uganda. On tour in the region, American diplomat Linda Thomas-Greenfield said that African countries "can buy Russian agricultural products, including fertilizers and wheat", but that Washington would refuse any long-term commitment with Russia. However, the purchase of fuel fell into this second category.
In the balance, Washington had threatened to revise downwards, or even to cancel, its financial aid granted to Uganda for refugees and for health. A stroke of pressure that worked: Kampala finally agreed to listen to the White House and resolved to refuse the proposal to import fuel from Russia.
Russia, a friend who means no harm to Uganda
A surprising 180° turn. Because Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has always defended the sovereignty of his country and praised his good relations with Russia. In July, he notably welcomed the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov, during the latter's tour of the African continent. Museveni then asked: “How can you be against someone who has never hurt us? If Russia makes mistakes, we tell them. When she doesn't make a mistake, we can't be against her”.
Problem: Kampala's choice to say no to Russian fuel could have significant consequences. According to Africa Intelligence, “the country is now seeing its reserves drop dangerously”. Admittedly, Uganda is now trying to no longer depend on foreign partners. But it will be necessary to wait until 2025 for the crude production projects to be launched in the country. By then, reserves are dwindling, with Uganda consuming 6,5 million liters of fuel per day.
Very high gas prices
Last May, the Ugandan Ministry of Finance announced that it did not want to set up a fuel subsidy. Now unable to import fuel in large quantities, Uganda must now find solutions. Moscow's advantage was the tariff schedule offered by Russia. However, by siding with the Americans, Kampala certainly saves its aid for refugees and health, but must think about how to finance its fuels.
If Uganda had about 2,5 billion barrels of crude reserves before this decision, the reserves are melting like snow in the sun. And Kampala will have to find new partners to import. A solution will have to be found quickly. Because popular pressure is likely to be felt, especially in the event of a price increase. Uganda is already ranked among the ten African countries with the highest gasoline prices.