The heads of state of the six countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) will meet in August in Yaoundé, Cameroon. A summit demanded by the IMF ...
In Central Africa, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is inexorably leading the way. For three months, the current president of CEMAC, the Cameroonian head of state Paul Biya, has sent his emissaries for a rather crucial round of negotiations. Lejeune Mbella Mbella, Cameroonian Minister of External Relations, has indeed started a tour in Central Africa since Sunday.
It is therefore official, even if the exact date is still not announced, the heads of state of CEMAC will meet in Yaoundé in August. On the IMF side, we are banking on August 18. The financial body is, it seems, the party that demanded this summit. Under the national sovereign debt rescheduling programs of CEMAC countries, the GDP growth announced by the BEAC will not have been sufficient. The string of reforms that all the CEMAC countries have agreed to carry out has not been enough either. The IMF remains, for the moment, the boss in the region.
INFLATION FORECAST 2021
🇫🇷: 0,8 to 2,1%
🇺🇸: up to 3,4%
🇨🇲: 2,3% CEMAC level 3%
🇨🇮: + 3,3 to + 5,2%When inflation accelerates, those who have CAPITAL or WORK get richer while those who have jobs get poorer#MoneySpaces https://t.co/cYEOacyVjz
— dreboa.bsc 2️⃣3️⃣5️⃣2️⃣ (@CoachingMeNow) July 14, 2021
A humiliation for CEMAC?
The IMF has never hidden its interference in the policies of the countries it is supposed to help. Also, the funds that the IMF promises to the heads of state of the CEMAC, in order to impose on them what promises to be a new round of reforms, amount to 3,3 billion dollars. This sum will not be distributed equitably between the countries of the bloc. Some, like the Central African Republic and Equatorial Guinea, will only be entitled to 240 million and 57 million respectively. And while Chad and Cameroon will likely share the lion's share of IMF funds, the reforms dictated are much the same for Gabon and Congo.
This summit, which will therefore not address the debt but the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), is of capital geopolitical importance. We will know soon enough who among the CEMAC countries which are the favorites of Kristalina Georgieva. The figures for the CEMAC zone are not bad, however: according to the BEAC, real GDP growth is 1,3% and inflation is 2,7%. The nominal GDP of the CEMAC countries therefore has negative growth of 2,9% in 2021, against 3,1% in 2020. A rather positive result, therefore.
Why is the IMF dealing, for example, with Sudan, whose finances are catastrophic, in the same way as with the CEMAC countries ? Development funds should be used to improve the solvency of CEMAC countries. Thanks to its promises, the IMF will bring together the heads of state of the CEMAC to meet its demands. An evil not so necessary as that… Especially insofar as the IMF reforms are discussed at the national level. The presidents of the six African countries or their representatives risk feeling humiliated by the convening of an extraordinary summit which they did not want at the grassroots.