Eight months after the coup d'etat in Guinea, the President of the Transition Mamady Doumbouya estimates that the transition will take 39 months before the State regains constitutional order. A proposal which will be submitted to parliament, but which is already provoking the ire of the country's political parties.
If the Guinean press is to be believed, Mamady Doumbouya has “succeeded in the feat of uniting parties that were once irreconcilable against him”. Carried by a people weary of the failures of Alpha Condé, Mamady Doumbouya's putsch, and the ensuing transition since last September, now has lead in the wing. Today, the military leader of the National Rally Committee for Development (CNRD) is struggling to rally.
A fall in popularity of the leader of the Transition in Guinea which takes on impressive proportions after he decided last Saturday to finally propose a transition schedule. And the latter, 39 months old, will find it difficult to convince, whether on the side of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the United Nations, but also, and above all, populations, political parties and civil society.
A decision expected too. “Mamady Doumbouya wants to draw parallels between the Guinean and Malian transition, and take advantage of the popularity of the latter. But the contours of the Guinean transition are not those of the Malian transition, and Doumbouya will find it difficult to convince, even its first subscribers, to accept such a long transition period,” laments a Guinean diplomat.
The reactions are much more stormy within the political parties in Guinea. From the former ruling party – yet very timid since the fall of Alpha Condé – to the opposition parties which defended the coup, the dissidence is total.
How did we get here ?
As a reminder, Mamady Doumbouya had succeeded in his coup last September with the help of his unit, the Special Forces Group (GFS) and the support of part of the army. With President Alpha Condé under control, he quickly established himself as the country's leader, aided by his predecessor's growing unpopularity, in turn due to an ever-worsening socio-economic situation.
Unsurprisingly, Doumbouya's coup was denounced by the international community. However, the popular jubilation of the fall of Condé, combined with the support of the opposition and a large part of Guinean public opinion, quickly tipped the balance in favor of the junta.
Since then, Mamady Doumbouya and his advisers have organized several meetings with the political class, and received representatives of the international community on a few occasions in order to reassure them. And it must be said that, contrary to its habits, ECOWAS was rather lenient with the new occupant of Sékhoutouréya.
But while Doumbouya repeated that he will "not be dictated" to a transition timetable, the junta's announcement comes shortly after the April 25 deadline suggested by ECOWAS has been exceeded. The transition period of 39 months chosen, finally, would aim to be "a happy medium" between the proposals of the participants in the National Conference.
The Minister of Territorial Administration and Decentralization, Mory Condé, highlighted, at the end of the consultations, that the duration of the transition should be between 18 and 52 months. But with the massive boycott of consultations by political parties, are these figures really representative?
“Making love” in Guinea
For Doumbouya, it was at first glance almost impossible to satisfy ECOWAS. But the national support of civil society and political parties was still hoped for. Until last Saturday.
For the moment, ECOWAS has still not expressed itself on the proposal of the Guinean Head of State. From Dakar, the Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, for his part called for a “return to constitutional order as soon as possible”.
The former ruling party, the Rally of the People of Guinea (RPG), rejected Doumbouya's decision, calling for a "consensual timetable" for the transition.
But it is above all on the side of the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC), bringing together around twenty opposition parties having campaigned against Alpha Condé, that the surprise was created. The influential movement issued a press release considering a 39-month transition “inadmissible, inconceivable and unacceptable”. The political formation was, however, among the supporters of Mamady Doumbouya. "The attitude of the authorities constitutes a threat to national unity," said the FNDC.
Read: Guinea: what will the National Conferences be used for?
Some parties of the FNDC, and a large part of civil society had boycotted, at the end of April, the National Assizes on a background of lack of preparation. And the dissatisfaction of the political class with the choices of the junta is not new. Because it manifested itself during the establishment, by the CNRD, of the Office for Monitoring Presidential Priorities (BSPP), a kind of shadow government with extended powers, controlled by the junta.
But also, the declarations of the leader of the transition at the advent of his coup. Mamady Doumbouya had declared: "We no longer need to rape Guinea, we just need to make love to it, quite simply". If his statements were then devoid of context, they take on their full meaning today. Has Mamady Doumbouya become indefensible?
Exactly. Africans need to keep a careful eye 🧐on this breed of African 'leaders' who are French-trained (Doumbouya is ex-Legionnaire 🇫🇷🎖👮🏽♀️), with foreign wives, etc. 🇬🇳 🇨🇮 pic.twitter.com/zlroiQaSwD
— Prince of the Nile (@Starchild737) May 1, 2022