This Monday, June 21, 2021, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed organized and participated in the first ballot since coming to power in 2019. After a start in his mandate which earned him a Nobel Prize, the Ethiopian head of state is become belligerent.
First meeting with the ballots of the Prosperity Party (PP), the conglomerate which supported the primacy of Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia. After a year full of political, diplomatic and socio-economic success, Ethiopia has experienced a second catastrophic year. The Prime Minister and Nobel Peace Prize 2019, would he have turned from a seasoned statesman into a bloodthirsty tyrant? This had been the case for months, according to international opinion. However, in Ethiopia, the elections went off without major hitches. For supporters of "Badhaadhiinaa", Abiy Ahmed is on the way to easy victory.
An expected victory too, as even the election authorities identify hundreds of irregularities, the only opposition facing the Prosperity Party is microscopic. But the same authority - understand the NEBE - proceeded to refute any attempt to organize the vote in the most populous areas of the country.
This highway to a victory for Abiy Ahmed reflects the Ethiopian political will only in part. It would not be conceivable for the whole country to vote for the same party among 7 major parties. Currently, Abiy Ahmed dominates the parliament, with its 512 seats, at 100%. And at the level of governance, between the starving, the families of the executed, the diaspora etc. Would another total victory for the Prosperity Party be curious?
Abiy Ahmed and his deliberate flutters, in the Prosperity Party
Abiy Ahmed's supporters are organized according to ethnicity into seven groups. There are Amhara groups (APP), a Tigrayan puppet group (TPP) and of course, an Oromo group (OPP). And if initially, the PP wanted to be representative of the whole of Ethiopia, it suffices to note a few statistics. According to the report of proceedings of the Parliament of Ethiopia in 2020, the APP proposed 86% of the items adopted on the agenda. What is serious is that 100% of the amendments, projects and proposals emanating from the APP have been ratified. In return, the only other group that operates freely in parliament is the OPP, belonging to the prime minister's ethnic group. The OPP is also responsible for all of the remaining 14% of the work in the assembly.
Now, with these statistics, are the other ethnic groups represented in the PP? Not really. Then, if Abiy Ahmed has favored the Amhara for more than a year, it is simply because the Amhara deputies represent the army. It is the same army that commits the Tigray genocide. And this is exactly the same army that slaughtered the Oromos schoolchildren in 2020.
So, if Abiy Ahmed is inflexible in the face of threats from the international community, he is much more flexible in his exercise of power. Since the Amhara Pact, which brought Eritrea back into Ethiopia's fold, Ahmed is no longer ruling the country. However, he defends Amhara and Eritrea at the cost of almost all of his international support. And this, until total isolation.
A definite victory for Abiy Ahmed, the result of effective communication
The vote on Monday is therefore not unpredictable. By itself, before March 2020, everyone was certain of Abiy Ahmed's victory. Currently, the PP remains the favorite, but for other reasons. The Amhara elite know full well that the Prime Minister has made himself indispensable. Whether in economic relations with China - 20% of the trade deficit and 23% of the debt-to-GDP ratio - or in those with Addis Ababa.
Indeed, Abiy Ahmed has set up a very effective communication system. So much so that the state social media regulator (INSA) itself managed the Prime Minister's communication. Besides, Facebook has deactivated all of the Prime Minister's accounts, groups and pages, four days before the election. Too late, no doubt, but it is clear that when the State makes the propaganda of Abiy Ahmed, it is supported by its own cogs. Abiy Ahmed left the management of ethnic conflicts to the Amharas, at the cost of a genocide of more than 350 people, certainly. But it also has, according to data from the ADB, researchers from Usherbrooke, Georgetown, Munich, ESPOL, the World Bank etc. offered all regional offices of public enterprises to some Oromos.
So Abiy Ahmed curbs internal tensions, even potential ones, between his supporters, with the carrot and the stick. As he consolidates his hold on the country, he has completely abandoned international relations to his communicative Billene Seyoum and his favorite diplomat, Minister Workneh Gebeyehu.
The memories of the Derg would seem so sweet now
Strangely, the current context of Ethiopia, a little, or a lot of liberalism, is reminiscent of the Derg. Haile Mariam's dictatorship was relatively less murderous. The one called "the red terror" had displaced the Tigrayan populations, to the order of 100 people. Currently, more than two million Tigrayan civilians have been displaced since November, and 000 are starving to death due to the military embargo. Starvation as a weapon of war was the Derg's way to fight the insurgency. However, she would be a way "To exterminate the Tigrayans for 100 years" according to Abiy Ahmed and his ministers. If we believe the Finnish Foreign Minister, Pekka Haavisto, of course.
Then Ethiopia does not have the Plan, as in the days of the Derg. However, liberalism achieves its objectives only when the country is integrated into its region and into the international community. When one sees Ethiopia under the yoke of American, European and African sanctions, one might doubt the global reach of Ethiopian trade. Eventually, China, Ethiopia's only major economic partner, could very well do without his services. Especially if the killings in the north and south of the country become too cumbersome for the army to hide.
Then, even if Abiy Ahmed is renewed by another parliament that he controls 100%, until when will he be able to play the card of enlightened despotism? An African country that goes beyond world powers can only assume it up to a point. Which is generally counted in financial flows, in young unemployed people or in civilians who have deliberately died of hunger. The question today would therefore not be whether Abiy could rule the country, but up to how many deaths? A strange dilemma for a Head of State, Nobel Peace Prize ...
And long live democracy
Monday went off without a hitch. Because the authorities chased the national observers from the polling stations. Some have been arrested. And in 102 of Ethiopia's 547 constituencies, the vote was not even organized.
In order to remedy the very low turnout, NEBE ordered an extension in Gumuz, Sidama and other areas. Less than half of the ballots reached the counting centers, and turnout in other areas was 7% of those registered.
However, Abiy Ahmed seems determined to have his 100%, but without it being too suspicious. After having banned international observers, and the NEBE banned national observers, it would be necessary to ensure that the vote is a minimum representative. Although, the logistical problems, invoked in March, would no longer be a valid excuse. Nor the war for that matter, now that Ethiopia is no longer venturing into the field of negotiation.
International concern increased about the Ethiopian poll. The stakes are high. And for the diplomacy of the sub-region, the return to the stifling of the opposition in Ethiopia would be going a little far. Indeed, the four countries of the Horn of Africa cannot assume political repression. Being engaged in the same ethnic massacre against the Tigrayans, for three of them.
No doubt remains about the victory of the PP. It remains to be seen what will happen next. Would there be an internal reorganization between the deputies? Will we see a faction that opposes Abiy Ahmed in Parliament? What suspense, for the "first free and democratic elections" in Ethiopia, according to its Prime Minister.