In recent weeks, Libya has been the theater of diplomatic operations. Three European foreign ministers succeeded one another yesterday. Is the war in Libya finally over?
The three French, German and Italian foreign ministers visited Libya on March 25, according to Africa Intelligence newspaper. Libya has seen foreign diplomacy parading on its soil since the new government of Abdelhamid Dbeibah obtained the support of Parliament on March 8. The birth of this government allowed the signing of historic agreements.
China, Russia, Turkey and their allies have reportedly accepted the national unity agreement in Libya. This agreement was officially sponsored by the United Nations and initiated by the United States. The latter have finally succeeded in getting the States of the Old Continent to move, at least in a diplomatic context, to pave the way for reconciliation with Libya.
Europe gives in to international pressure
France has "a debt to Libya, very clear: a decade of disorder". This is what French President Emmanuel Macron said during his meeting with Libyan leaders on Tuesday at the Elysee Palace.
Words that sound like an admission of guilt. In 2011, France, led by then-President Nicolas Sarkozy, promoted and participated in the military intervention that led to the downfall of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. A fall that had devastating effects in Libya.
Behind this admission, sizeable European interests: France is seeking to reposition itself within the EU, and concessions on the Libyan file are in order, in this case the Italian interest in the immigration file, all subject to German mediation.
Berlin is also seeking to award a consolation prize to Italians who somehow cope with the flow of migrants from Africa, via Libya, without increasing their own quotas or those of France. It is in this context that Mario Draghi, the new Italian head of state, will travel to Libya on April 6 to meet Abdelhamid Dbeibah.
Elections in the crosshairs
On December 24, 2021, inclusive elections will be held in Libya. This ballot remains a priority for the new interim authority, who, although legitimate, will not be able to undertake a reorganization of state institutions for several months. At most, the new government will have to maintain peace in the country, the various actors present within the government and the world powers must, in the meantime, accept the status quo.
Speaking at a Security Council meeting on Wednesday, UN envoy to Libya Jan Kubis said that for the ballot to take place "it is essential to have legal and constitutional frameworks. confirmed and clear for the presidential and parliamentary elections ”. He insisted that "the Libyans and the Libyan authorities call on the mercenaries and foreign forces to leave the country as soon as possible."
American short circuit
An important point in Kubis' speech was the insistence on reopening the coastal road from Misrata to eastern Libya. He spoke on behalf of the EU, among others, saying that this reopening would take place in two weeks, and that it was a priority for members of the 5 + 5 Joint Military Committee.
The reopening of the sea route will greatly facilitate the flow of oil from Sarir, the Gulf of Sirte and Bir Zaltan out of Libya without crossing the center of the country, still under the control of the Gaddafi tribes of the South. Oil wells and refineries operated in these areas are operated by the National Oil Company (NOC).
NOC director Mustafa Sanalla received a medal from the US ambassador on February 25. It had facilitated the movement of the US oil fleet to eastern Libya ever since. In total, four new tankers have been circulating in northern Libya since the beginning of March, which is no coincidence.
We could therefore wonder whether the interests of the Americans are the holding of elections and the Libyan renaissance, or the fluidity of oil exchanges with the country. It was the United States that chaperoned the installation of the new government in world bodies. How will Russia react to these initiatives, in a Libyan region that it had controlled for years? Will Turkey and Qatar see it as yet another affront to Haftar? Or will the informal arrangement with the Americans fall to the new Libyan government? Case to follow.