Victory is possible, but only in 2026 or 2030 and only if African teams can play top international matches more regularly, a football study says.
Many football fans hope that an African team will finally win the FIFA World Cup in 2022. The world has been waiting for this since the great Brazilian player Pele predicted (in the 1970s) that an African country would win it before the year 2000. That didn't happen, but that didn't stop Patrice Motsepe, President of the Confederation of African Football, say (in 2021):
An African team must win the World Cup in the near future.
But is it realistic to continue to hope? Are African teams doing what it takes to compete with the best teams in the world, so it's only a matter of time? Or is an African victory possible if countries do something different? Or again, is an African victory simply impossible, on the order of false hope?
I address this multi-pronged issue in a recent research article which is based on various sources of data (in particular the Elo rating database to compare competition results in the 2010s. It examines Africa's top contenders (Algeria, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia) and recent Cup finalists and semi-finalists world (Belgium, Brazil, Croatia, England, France, Germany, Spain) to see if African countries are really competitive compared to other best football players in the world. And if not, why?
I see a significant competitiveness gap between African countries and the best in the world, which seems to have widened over the past few generations. This gap is not encouraging for those hoping for a victory for Africa in the World Cup.
The study
My analysis considers two dimensions of each country's track record: how they compete (how often they play, against whom, and in which tournaments) and how they compete with their opponents (how often they win , especially against elite teams and in prestigious tournaments).
Unfortunately, the results of African countries are far behind those of the best nations on both counts. Africa's top players have played at lower levels of competition and won less often. Instead of competing with the best in the world, the best countries in Africa seem to be a better match for a country like Greece, which has appeared in three World Cup finals and reached the round of 2014 in XNUMX. is an impressive record, but few people outside of Greece see the country as a potential World Cup winner. So why do we think African countries should carry such hope?
I found that the charts of the most successful African countries looked more like current World Cup contenders in previous decades (even in the 1970s when Pele made his prediction). Tunisia and France had very similar track records in the 1970s, for example, but France today has a richer track record. This suggests that Africa's top contenders have become relatively less competitive over time.
This observation is surprising considering all that has been done to expand Africa's role in world football since the 1970s. they take part in more intracontinental competitions than before (with a African Cup of Nations expanded, notably). In addition, African players have proven their talent and have been more exposed to the best in world football. More than 200 Africans are currently playing in the five major European championships.
Why are African teams less competitive?
Regardless of this progress, I think African countries have become less competitive because they don't regularly measure up to the best nations in the world. Less than 20% of the matches of top African countries are played against elite opponents. World Cup semi-finalists and finalists play between 30-60% of their annual matches against elite nations. It's no surprise that African nations also win far fewer of these top-flight games – Nigeria only won 30% of the points in these encounters in the 2010s – England won 68%.
Studies from various research works teach us that teams become more competitive when they “play up” against high level opposition. “On the other hand, they are less competitive when playing against weaker opponents. This is because teams learn, every time they play, the strategies and techniques used on and off the field of their opponents. The best national teams have the most advanced techniques, many of which are state of the art and have yet to be shared. The only way to discover them is to regularly participate in competitions.
The best African nations playing football do not regularly compete against the best nations and therefore are not able to assimilate these techniques. They may therefore dominate continental tournaments, but in the end they will not have the necessary know-how to really compete – on a constant and regular basis – with the best nations in the world.
World Cup odds
I am convinced that African countries can win a game once in a while against a world power (and we have seen such results over time). But the world champion must defeat at least five elite opponents (and draw two others) over the next month. None of the African representatives at this year's World Cup have won five matches against elite opponents in the past five years.
Cameroon's best result against non-African elite opponents since 2017 is arguably a friendly draw against Japan. Ghana drew two friendly draws against Chile and Japan. Morocco obtained two friendly victories against Chile and Serbia. Senegal got a friendly draw against Brazil. Tunisia's best results were friendly wins over Chile and Japan and a friendly draw against Portugal. Of course, friendly matches are not the same as competitive matches.
Unfortunately, I don't think an African team will win the World Cup this year. But I think an African team could win in the future, if the best African players face better teams and learn to compete with them at this level.
What it would take
This would require major African nations to decide to play their B teams in African competitions and to schedule more matches against top opponents for their A teams. I would expect African teams to lose more these games than they win - at least initially - but I'll bet they'll win more and more over time, increasing their chances of becoming the team capable of beating any team in the Cups of 2026 or 2030. I will also bet that African countries that choose to continue playing with low level opponents will never win the World Cup.
Africans must hold out hope of winning, but make sure they do the work necessary to build the teams and systems that will make that dream a reality. As we say Antonio Conte, former Italian player turned manager:
It's easier to use the verb 'win' than to win than to win because to win, you have to build something important, be solid… So you're ready to win. Otherwise, we have to hope.
I am one of those who hope that Africa will win the World Cup. Countries in Africa have incredible potential – on and off the football pitch – but many Africans need to see that potential realised. There is no better place than the World Cup to demonstrate what the people of the continent can do. But there is still work to be done for this to happen.
Matthew Andrews, Edward S. Mason Senior Lecturer in International Development, Harvard Kennedy School
This article is republished from The Conversation under Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.