After 40 years in power, Cameroonian Paul Biya, 89, is Africa's second longest-serving leader. He is already planning to run again in 2025.
At 89, one of the world's oldest leaders, President Paul Biya of Cameroon celebrated its 40 years at the head of the state. He took office in 1982.
He is the second oldest ruler in Africa. The oldest is Teodoro Obiang Nguema, of Equatorial Guinea, in power since 1979.
Cameroon has enjoyed a long period of political stability under Biya's iron fist. But it ended up unraveling when a anglophone rebellion erupted in the southwest and northwest and when radical islamists arrived from Nigeria. The internal pressure for Biya to accept a transition was also persistent.
But Biya still does not engage to cede power in 2025, corresponding to the end of his current seventh term.
What explains Biya's longevity in power and why is Cameroon unable to organize a transition?
I am specialist democratic studies and types of regimes in Africa, as well as an analyst of African political news. I am interested in why the continent is burdened with aging presidents who should be enjoying their retirement when it desperately needs young, active and innovative leaders to rise to its challenges.
A good start
Biya succeeded Ahmadou Ahidjo, president of Cameroon from 1960 to 1982, after his surprise resignation. Ahidjo was struggling with an economic crisis and widespread corruption. He was the head of a one-party state and an exceptional centralization of power within the presidency.
When Biya became president in 1982, he promised political liberalization, including democracy, civil and human rights and economic progress in Cameroon.
For a time he strove to achieve some of these goals. The country has achieved political stability and unity, and relative economic transformation through its “New Deal”. There was even a momentary relaxation of the draconian police state.
But by the end of the 1990s, political liberalization, fiscal discipline and government accountability were gradually halted. This happened after the bloody coup attempt of 1984 by the Republican Guards.
Biya has become increasingly adamant when it comes to political compromise. He first purged Ahidjo's faction within the ruling party and eventually blocked any serious challenge to his leadership, whether from inside or outside the party. But finally, under outside pressure, he accepted a multiparty system in 1990.
This has been gradually and systematically emptied of its substance, creating a monolithic system that has allowed Biya to remain in power for the past 40 years.
Biya's longevity
Cameroonian politics has long been dominated by the Democratic Rally of the Cameroonian People of Biya, who was called Cameroonian National Unionuntil 1985. It had been the dominant party since 1966. After a formal opening of the political space to the multiparty system, the latter gradually weakened.
There was one failure the institutionalization of political parties. Hundreds of smaller parties have sprung up – 300 so far, many of which are said to be secretly financed and controlled by Biya. They offer a facade of democratic competitiveness. In reality, they weakened the legitimate political opposition.
The absence of a united and consolidated opposition has allowed the entrenchment of a system of dominant parties. The ruling party has a dominant majority both in the National Assembly and in the Senate (63 seats out of 70). This negates any possibility of true control and balance.
The party also used electoral mechanisms such as redrawing electoral districts to his advantage and, in some cases, outright fraud to extend his victories and solidify his majorities.
The elections have become little more than a formality for which Biya presents himself without the possibility of losing.
For example, in 2004, Biya was elected with 70,9% voices. After the constitutional revision of 2008 to remove term limits, he was re-elected with 78% votes in 2011.
In 2018, he obtained 71,28% against his challenger, the leader of the opposition Maurice Kamto.
Biya has created a rent-seeking political class that not only does its job but keeps it in power with minimal resistance. Cameroon is one of the main timber exporters in Africa and the fifth cocoa producer in the world.
The country should have enough resources to reduce extreme poverty and underdevelopment. Yet, due to corruption, revenues are plundered to maintain a patronage network.
Politicians must show allegiance and loyalty to Biya. The alternative is to end up on the sidelines or in jail. Biya has also given senior positions in the administration, army, security and civil service to people from his southern ethnic group. He relied in particular on the Rapid Intervention Battalion, a unit of highly trained military commandos, to ensure that the regular army cannot act against him.
Le anglophone crisis also allowed Biya to divert attention from his mismanagement. This violent conflict caused thousands of deaths in a civil war against the English-speaking regions secessionists from the country.
Biya, who relies on supporters French and, more recently, Russian, has used the conflict to bolster his domestic power and deflect international criticism.
Another factor is the concentration of power in Cameroon. Nothing substantial can be done without the approval of the president. No branch of government or state entity is exempt from this policy, including the judiciary: judges are appointed directly by the president.
In other words, there is no sector of public life that is untouched by the Biya regime.
Considering post-Biya
The president's term ends in 2025, when he will be 92 years old. Although he has shown no signs of abandoning the scene, the idea of a post-Biya era is gaining ground.
Although the ruling party has not held a congress since 2011, thus preventing debate on the transition, there is occasional internal reorganization of the party. The president used it to control potential threats to his supremacy.
Biya's system has had its day. His longevity rests on his ruthlessness and political acumen.
Unfortunately, the real price to pay is that of the country's democracy, which has long suffered from cracks that can only be healed by political renewal through regime change. And this change, even Biya cannot do much to prevent it.
David Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham
This article is republished from The Conversation under Creative Commons license. Read theoriginal article.