At the polls (1/7): in Madagascar, an anti-Rajoelina front?

The coming year will be decisive for many African countries. The Journal de l'Afrique begins a round of the presidential elections which will take place in 2023. Each day, zoom in on a country. First step in Madagascar, where President Rajoelina plays big.

Will President Andry Rajoelina keep his chair as President? After trying to be one of the spearheads of the fight against Covid over the past two years, the Malagasy head of state has struggled to stem the virus on the island. The arrival of the war between Ukraine and Russia was also a difficult time to manage for a Rajoelina who tried to spare Moscow and Paris. Without forgetting an attempted coup d'etat which caused a lot of ink to flow... Suffice to say that the former DJ who became president has not lived peacefully over the past two years.

But on the side of the Presidency of the Republic, we remain optimistic for 2023. President Rajoelina would indeed benefit from a still high popularity rating, despite a balance sheet, particularly economic, which is not very flattering. Finally, he is criticized for not having stemmed corruption. The Head of State wants to put all the chances on his side by closing ranks within his majority. Because in terms of domestic politics, the situation has also not been very good lately: its Prime Minister, Christan Ntsay, was targeted by a motion of censure which was to be supported by the elected representatives of the majority.

Ravalomanana and Rajaonarimampianina, each for himself?

At the end of 2023, we will therefore have to be attentive to the political situation on the island. In particular, we should relive an election similar to that of 2018: in addition to Rajoelina, two former presidents, Marc Ravalomanana and Hery Rajaonarimampianina, are also in the running. The first has already formalized his candidacy. It remains to know if Ravalomanana will go alone to the presidential election or in duo with Rajaonarimampianina. This prospect frightens the presidency, which knows that a duo between the two ex-presidents would have more chances of overcoming Rajoelina. Both are in full negotiation and we should soon know if a coalition will be formed against the current president.

For Andry Rajoelina, everything must now focus on his balance sheet. The beginning of 2023 will therefore be devoted to consolidating certain measures, such as the Madagascar Emergence Plan (PEM). With three-quarters of Malagasy people living below the poverty line, there is still work. But above all, a short time. Because with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Rajoelina lost a lot of time.