Called to the polls to elect their president, the Angolans have the choice between the party in power since 1975 and a virulent opposition. For the first time in almost a quarter of a century, the ballot seems uncertain.
His track record is disputed. When Angolans are called to go to the polls, João Lourenço does not really know if he will still be president tomorrow. It must be said that, since his arrival five years ago in power, in place of José Eduardo dos Santos, Lourenço has been trying to raise the bar. After decades of corruption and with the price of a barrel of oil which has continued to fall, the Angolan president has had a hard time putting the indicators in the green. Result : Angola's external debt increased from $10 billion in 2006 to $60 billion in 2020 and the poverty rate has fallen too little.
Lourenço is therefore, today, not guaranteed to win the Angolan presidential election. Especially since he has, in front of him, eight opponents ready to fight. Among them, Adalberto Costa Júnior, the leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita). According to the few polls, the ballot should be close. And for the first time since 1975, the Popular Liberation Movement of Angola (MPLA) could lose a presidential election.
Questioned by RFI, the political scientist Nelson Domingos shows to what extent the MPLA could have been destabilized by Unita. “Recently, the president called members of civil society bandits. He also nicknamed the president of Unita 'the white rooster', because he is of mixed race. It's racist. When there is no more creativity, no more ideas, the political debate disappears and gives way to violence, manipulation and false information”.
Towards post-election unrest?
This is a bit of a summary of the campaign, which was tougher than during the last elections. For Costa Júnior, it's time for the MPLA to hand over, because the hour of reckoning has come. The opposition candidate has also made a perfect campaign, using his verve to galvanize his troops and those disappointed by the regime in power since 1975.
Among Costa Júnior's hobbyhorses is corruption, which has plagued Angola for too long. The number 1 opponent of Lourenço deplores in particular the upcoming cheating by the National Electoral Commission (CNE), as always acquired by the ruling party, but also the irregularities already noticed in the voters file or in the voting process.
Inevitably, from this Wednesday, fraud will be denounced by the opposition. Unita has already planned to conduct its own count and announce its own results. Which, inevitably, should give rise to disputes in the coming hours.
Still, despite the difficulty of finding a clear favorite, the ruling party could well avoid defeat thanks to a well-oiled machine. In addition to an electoral base that is still loyal, the MPLA has support from the army. The current president has already warned the 14 million voters that the results of the polls should be respected, when Unita risks not letting it go.