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US ambassador to Libya brings Bachagha and Dbeibah to heel

Richard Norland Libya

After a silence of several months, the American ambassador in Libya, Richard Norland, decided to interfere in the battle of the two Prime Ministers Abdel Hamid Dbeibah and Fathi Bachagha. Explanations.

“I have been in contact with Prime Minister Dbeibah and Prime Minister-designate Bachagha. And I am convinced that the two leaders want to avoid an escalation of violence,” US Ambassador to Libya Richard Norland said last Saturday.

Yet residents of Misrata, Fezzan and Tripoli could swear otherwise. When Fathi Bachagha's government is sworn in, military parades by militias loyal to him or his rival Abdel Hamid Dbeibah are a daily occurrence.

A dozen ministers of the new government, at least three of whom had been kidnapped, take the oath in dribs and drabs. And in Tripoli, outgoing Prime Minister Dbeibah does not intend to abandon his post. While in Tobruk and Benghazi, the forces of Khalifa Haftar, allies of Bachagha, are mobilizing.

The controversial vote of confidence in the eastern parliament, chaired by Aguila Salah, had even shaken UN and Western support for Bachagha. While everyone thought Dbeibah was over, the mobilization of the Fezzan tribes could change everything.

Still, in the eyes of the Americans, the situation must be resolved as soon as possible. Because oil and gas, since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, have become scarce. And with Europe on the brink of energy collapse, the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) has completely halted oil exports. In addition, the discontent of the tribes of Fezzan threatens to cause a gas break.

American interference in Libya

So why are the Americans coming out of their silence? Richard Norland had disappeared since the establishment of the Dbeibah government, and had even avoided commenting on the postponement of the Libyan election in December.

While the war between Ukraine and Russia suffocates European economies, dependent on Russian gas, the United States finds itself unable to act as a supplier. It is estimated that even if Joe Biden agreed to release US gas producers to increase production, the latter would not exceed 1 million barrels of LNG for European consumption. Far off the mark.

On the other hand, the Algerian solution, which consists in connecting its MidCat to the French gas network, and therefore to all of Western Europe, still awaits a reciprocal political will. However, Emmanuel Macron has still not given a sign of life.

If Norland is trying to maintain a status quo between eastern and western Libya today, then, Europe's survival depends on it. But in this power struggle between Dbeibah and Bachagha, the national stakes are also very important.

The "Gaddafi Connection" to the rescue of Dbeibah

When the Eastern Parliament (HoR) of Aguila Salah brought forward the establishment of a new government, Dbeibah surprised everyone by announcing legislative elections in Libya. These are scheduled for next June, if Dbeibah remains in office. However, if Bachagha manages to conquer power in Tripoli, all the elections will be postponed until the end of 2023, the duration of the transition announced by the Prime Minister designate being fourteen months.

However, it was not Dbeibah who was the first to suggest holding the legislative elections and the constitutional referendum before the presidential one. This solution is still demanded today by the Libyan media.

Indeed, on January 27, Muammar Gaddafi's heir, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, published a roadmap for the Libyan transition. Until then, after the elimination of the son of the "Guide of the Revolution" from the presidential race, everyone took his proposal for an attempt to create buzz.

But now Dbeibah, abandoned by Stephanie Williams' UNSMIL, as well as by a majority of its Western allies, is advancing on this roadmap without really believing in it.

Chance: the chief of the Fezzan tribes, Ali Abou Sbeiha, an ally of Gaddafi, denounces the vote of confidence of the Bachagha government. Another coincidence: Russia, which nevertheless supports a “Libya reunited” under Bachagha, says it hopes that “negotiations between the belligerents will lead to national elections”, but without ever saying a negative word about Dbeibah and his government.

Boost hydrocarbon exports

In any case, the recent intervention of the American diplomat Norland contrasts with that of his compatriot from the UN Stephanie Williams. The head of UNSMIL seeks, above all, to unify the parliaments of Aguila Salah and Khaled al-Michri. However, such a unification would necessarily give more support to Bachagha.

Richard Norland speaks with rival prime ministers, but not only. While the government disagrees with the NOC's decision to halt oil exports due to “bad coastal weather”, Norland is tackling the real source of the outage.

The US ambassador traveled to Fezzan, where he met the chiefs of the Tebu and Ahaali tribes, according to a statement from the embassy. Corn in a photo taken yesterday, we see Ali Abou Sbeiha alongside Norland. The negotiations on "the importance of the stability of Fezzan" undoubtedly took place with the tribal leader close to Gaddafi.

"After years of conflict, such 'homegrown' mediation initiatives are needed to support lasting peace in Libya," the US ambassador said.

But what the American diplomat seems to be doing, without saying so, is bringing the two rival Prime Ministers to heel, preferring to speak to those responsible for the hydrocarbon distribution chain on the ground. The conflict between the NOC and the government seems insoluble, and the Americans are seeking, through this interference, to put exports back on track quickly and discreetly.

The American company Halliburton promised, for its part, to help the NOC to "increase Libyan oil production by 1,4 million barrels per day in the short term, and 2,1 million in the medium term". Exports to Europe still need to resume...

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