Thirteen months after the launch of the African Continental Free Trade Area (Zlecaf), is the most ambitious common market on the planet living up to expectations?
More than thirteen months have passed since the entry into activity, for the signatory countries, of the African Continental Free Trade Area (Zlecaf). Since the beginning of the activities of the economic program, on January 1, 2021, the impact of the Zlecaf is however barely visible. However, the Zlecaf is, in all respects, the most ambitious economic program in history since the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO). On paper anyway.
Because with 54 of the 55 countries on the continent having already signed the free trade zone agreement, the Zlecaf can boast of being an economic zone encompassing nearly 1,3 billion people and endowed with an impressive gross GDP. — $3,4 trillion.
The Zlecaf project aims, concretely, to reduce the costs of inputs and the expenses of transport and delays for African exporters. The economic zone must allow a reduction in customs tariffs between members. According to specialists, the objective of Zlecaf is, among other things, to double intra-African trade by 2035.
An ambitious economic program…
In an increasingly interconnected economy, dominated by groupings of States and their respective economic blocks, the arguments in favor of Zlecaf have never been lacking. Nevertheless, it is difficult to know, for certain Member States, if they were going to emerge winners from this project.
For the moment, moreover, it is impossible to be certain: the success of the free trade area will depend on the way in which the Member States implement the reforms and trade reforms linked to the agreement.
The African Union (AU) had the will to implement Zlecaf, certain that trade integration was needed across the continent. But the project has long been hampered by weak infrastructure and customs and transport regulations.
If, very quickly, 44 of the 55 AU member states agreed to participate in the Zlecaf from March 2018, 10 other states followed suit between 2019 and 2020. The only country which has not yet signed the he agreement is Eritrea, whose economy is reputed to be very closed.
Read: Economy and politics: the many challenges of Zlecaf
Thirteen months after the official launch of Zlecaf, it is already time for the first assessment.
While negotiations around many issues are still ongoing or have not even started, it will still take time for the trade zone to fully function. No one expected such an ambitious program to be fully operational in just over a year, admittedly. But it is clear that the project is slipping a little. The first excuse advanced by the AU for the slow implementation of free trade measures was, unsurprisingly, the Covid-19 pandemic.
… held back by the pandemic
The pandemic had also caused the postponement of the entry into service of the program for a year.
Speaking at the last Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF 2021), last November, Zlecaf Secretary General Wamkele Keabetswe Mene said Covid-19 was “the biggest challenge” he had. known since his election.
“What we have learned are two things: first, we need to accelerate the industrial development of Africa, because we were importing, at least for the very first six to nine months of the pandemic, ventilators, anti- germs, equipment needed to fight pandemic. The second lesson we have learned is that it is important to establish Africa-specific supply chains and value chains,” continues Wamkele Mene.
For specialists, the lack of effects of the entry into office of the Zlecaf would therefore be the logical consequence of the pandemic. According to a report by the University of Cape Town, the “high level of political commitment” is, in itself, a positive result. "Expectations were very high, and the momentum created just before the pandemic was so exceptional, that there is a bit of disappointment that we are behind some of the targets that have been agreed by the signatory states", reads- we in this report.
Has the West been an obstacle to Zlecaf?
According to Carlos Lopes, professor at the Nelson Mandela School of Governance, the interference of foreign actors would also be at the origin of the delay taken by the Zlecaf. “We have seen the momentum change from a desire to get results quickly to a desire to wait longer to see some of the benefits at the national level by some of the countries that have the largest market share in the AfCFTA,” summarizes Lopez.
“One of the main obstacles to the success of Zlecaf is the interference of external actors – in particular the European Union (EU) – who are aggressively pushing bilateral trade agreements with African countries. Which are also limiting for Zlecaf”, continues the specialist.
Indeed, the implementation of the common framework of the Zlecaf experienced a withdrawal of certain countries - Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa in particular -, which had played an important role during the signing of the agreement. These countries are now more reserved on certain aspects related in particular to customs fees and intellectual property.
On the Nigerian side, the obstacle is mainly the national unions, which are against the agreement. South Africa is bogged down over the issue of rules of origin and intellectual property, two essential common trade frameworks according to South African negotiators. For Cairo, the recent signing of several trade agreements, notably with the EU, seems paradoxical with Egypt's full participation in Zlecaf.
Is Zlecaf too ambitious to become a reality? Or is the delay just anecdotal? The African Union, in any case, considers that the problems related to this file are not a priority: the discussions concerning the Zlecaf did not appear on the agenda of the 35th summit of the continental body, this weekend. end.