Two days before the Zambian general elections, the political climate is electric. The outgoing head of state Edgar Lungu will be opposed, during the presidential election, to the leader of the opposition Hakainde Hichilema.
In Zambia, history repeats itself. For the third time in their history, the leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND), Hakainde Hichilema, and the head of state, candidate of the Patriotic Front (PF), Edgar Lungu, will face each other at the polls. In Zambia, this August 12, sixteen candidates are running for the presidential election while, at the same time, the legislative and municipal elections will take place. But the Lungu-Hichilema duel is undoubtedly the attraction of the day.
During his six years at the helm of the country, Edgar Lungu has struggled to advance an economy that has suffered from significant demographics. So last year, Africa's second-largest copper producer experienced its first recession since 1998. Inflation is at its highest level in nineteen years. In July, food prices were almost a third higher than a year earlier.
Weakened by this mixed record, Lungu sees the opposition more motivated than ever. But already, observers fear manipulation, on one side and the other. According to the director of the NGO Alliance for Community Action (ACA), Laura Miti, "the economy will determine how people vote, but it may not determine the outcome." On the sidelines of the timid election campaign of the UPND and the PF, the situation is worrying.
Indeed, after a salvo of deadly pre-election violence between activists of the two parties, Edgar Lungu decided to deploy the army on August 1. And this for the first time in the country's history. For the opposition and civil society, we could see rigged elections in the next few hours. A gloomy finding for Zambia, which was once one of the pioneering countries of African democracy.
A disastrous economic record
Edgar Lungu has taken advantage of inflation to multiply popular measures for several months. In 2020, the state increased its subsidies for seeds and fertilizers tenfold. An operation to seduce farmers. In May 2021, Edgar Lungu made even larger grants before promising in July to "restructure the personal debts of civil servants" and transfer those debts to a state-owned creditor.
Decisions deemed populist by the opposition, as the country's economy is moribund. In November 2020, the government has defaulted on its debt, making Zambia the first African country not to pay its due during the pandemic. Blame it on Covid-19? To believe past events, more to poor management. Already between 2015 and 2020, public debt fell from 34% of GDP to 110%. And although China has built roads, much of the state's revenue has been wasted. Annual inflation is 25%, forcing 40% of Zambians to reduce their consumption. Some middle-class Zambians are considering fleeing to South Africa.
IMF puts pressure on Edgar Lungu
This shows the importance of the August 12 ballot. Will the Zambians give Edgar Lungu a second chance? In 1991 and 2011 inflation was also on the rise and Zambians voted against the incumbent president. On the side of the PF, it is said that the president preferred the economic crisis to debt. Indeed, Lungu has long avoided having to set up a program dictated by the IMF. Despite everything, the civil service weighs on the country's economy and private investors are scarce in Zambia.
The IMF predicts a dark year 2021. Zambia could be lagging behind at the continental level with GDP expected to grow only 0,6% after contracting 3,5% last year. A context that the favorite of the opposition, Hakainde Hichilema, seeks to exploit. Indeed, the businessman and head of the UPND promises to crack down on corruption and to borrow from the IMF in case of victory. He also promises to regain the confidence of foreign investors put off by, according to him, "Lungu's punitive policies". Since 2015, Lungu has, in fact, heavily taxed foreign investors.
The state has also seized many copper mines. The source of the Zambian miracle of the 2000s has since stalled. Between Hakainde Hichilema and Edgar Lungu, the duel of words was terrible. The two men divide: the richest populations of the country side with the opposition. As for the apolitical populations, as the electoral campaign shows, it reigns like an air of resignation. A political fed-up that will benefit no one. If it is not for the candidates who will try to grab the victory even before the announcement of the results.
In 2015, Hakainde Hichilema did not accept the election results, which placed Lungu the winner at 48,3% against 46,7% for him. Hichilema was even arrested in 2017, accused of wanting to overthrow the government. Released after four months, he remains determined. But the deployment of the military 10 days before the elections could be a game-changer. NGOs fear violence, during or after the elections. Especially since nThe African Union, SADC or Zambia's allies have refused to send observers to ensure the smooth running of Thursday's elections.