The President of the Tunisian Republic yesterday evening suspended the work of parliament and dismissed the head of government. Will Kaïs Saïed be able to manage the aftermath?
[Article updated July 26, 2021 at 18 p.m.]
Tunisia had suffered, for ten years, the pangs of usury. Since the 2011 revolution, the heads of government, each as apathetic as the other, have never succeeded in finding solutions to revive an amorphous economy and to provide social reassurance. So, the Tunisian population enthusiastically welcomed the events of last night. The President of the Republic Kaïs Saïed took advantage of the political paralysis, consequence of the inconsistencies of the Constitution, to take full powers, officially for a month. And it is precisely thanks to the vagueness of Article 80 of the Constitution that the Head of State froze the work of the Assembly of People's Representatives (ARP) and dismissed its head of government. The Constitution has shown its limits here: expected in October 2012, it was finally voted in January 2014 after being passed by the Venice Commission, a consultative body of the Council of Europe which provides "emergency constitutional aid" States in transition, which had no complaints about the inconsistencies of the text.
An unmanageable situation?
The actions taken yesterday by the Tunisian president were in any case the simplest part of the project of Kaïs Saïed who did not even need to carry out a coup: he simply had to position himself in force. And if it is undeniably a "takeover of republican institutions", as the German Foreign Ministry describes what happened yesterday, the President of the Republic does not appear for the moment as the aspiring dictator that his opponents describe. While he lifted the immunity of elected officials and announced that he would head the prosecution himself, the Tunisian president did not make any arrests last night. Astonishing for a Head of State who seeks to position himself as a “Mr. Clean” of politics. The soldiers admittedly prevented Rached Ghannouchi, the leader of Ennahdha, from accessing the ARP headquarters, but no bullet was fired. The first act of taking over the institutions in a peaceful manner, the most difficult, now begins for Kaïs Saïed. New to politics, the head of state is now himself confronted with a situation that seems unmanageable.
Saïed now alone at the helm
The President of the Republic affirmed, at the end of a meeting with the military officials, that he "will take charge of the executive power with the help of a government whose president will be appointed by the head of state". But who today could be appointed head of government? The name of Taoufik Charfeddine has been put forward for the past few hours. Lotfi Brahem could also find a job in the Interior. Without a real team, Kaïs Saïed is lonely, and will find it difficult to appoint a government without appealing to figures from the Ancien Régime, whom he has always denigrated. The presidency has given itself thirty days to find the providential man. In the meantime, Hichem Mechichi sacked, Kaïs Saïed got into difficulty by taking, alone, the reins of the country. Saïed no longer has any fuse and any political failure will be blamed on him, he who wishes to rule by decree. To find a name for the Kasba, the Tunisian president will begin to have to discuss with the various political components of the country, which he is not really used to doing.
Can the Ennahdha party take advantage of the situation?
As for the consequences of this takeover of state institutions, they will certainly exceed the will of Kaïs Saïed. The head of state hoped to take Ennahdha in his own trap. But it will certainly be the other way around. During the legislative elections of 2019, the supporters of Ennahdha 20% voted for the Islamist movement, which finished first. Since then, Montplaisir's party has experienced an acute crisis. Sunday's decisions will at least have the consequence of tightening the ranks withinEnnahdha, who usually knows how to harangue his militants so well. By taking half measures last night, Kaïs Saïed certainly wanted to put pressure on the Islamists. Unlike a Sisi in Egypt, who had Mohamed Morsi arrested a few days after his coup, Kaïs Saïed has, for the moment, no plans to imprison Rached Ghannouchi. The latter has a free hand to mobilize his troops and return to the political arena stronger.
What reaction from neighboring Algeria?
There remains one last unknown: foreign reactions. For the moment, Western countries have not reacted to Kaïs Saïed's announcements. France, after the words of Michèle Alliot-Marie who had proposed to send the CRS to help Ben Ali, in 2011, may well refrain from any comment. As for the United States, they urged Tunis last month to quickly create a Constitutional Court. Support for Kaïs Saïed, who blocked the process by refusing to sign the creation of the body last April, therefore seems unlikely. Today, it is especially on the Algerian side that the eyes are riveted in Tunisia. Since November, the Algerian Constitution has authorized military interventions abroad. For the moment, the disenchantment of Algiers for Rached Ghannouchi is an advantage for Kaïs Saïed. According to several corroborating sources, an emissary from the Algerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs will visit Tunis tomorrow. It remains to be seen whether the president will be able to find quick solutions to the political paralysis in Tunisia. The hardest part begins for him ...