Assimi Goïta, the president of Mali, estimates that the transition should last five years. ECOWAS does not agree. Will the latter negotiate or increase the sanctions against Bamako?
He could have accepted the terms of the international community and renegotiated an extension of the transition in a year or two. But Assimi Goïta decided to go directly to the confrontation, in particular with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). An arm wrestling initiated by the President of the Republic of Mali which risks only being the beginning.
Indeed, on January 1, ECOWAS announced that it wanted to organize an extraordinary summit on Mali this Saturday, January 9 in Accra, Ghana. An announcement that followed a statement from Goïta that did not go unnoticed: the president of the Malian transition has indicated that he wants to extend the five-year transition period.
A statement that follows the National Assises of the refoundation, which took place at the end of 2021. Assimi Goïta, following this meeting, presented a roadmap to Nana Akufo-Addo, who chairs ECOWAS. Among the projects for what promises to be a five-year term, the soldier proposes to put an end to insecurity in Mali and to organize several ballots: a constitutional referendum in January 2024, legislative and senatorial elections at the end of 2025 and a presidential election by 2026.
Disagreements internationally and in Mali
While the military junta has been in power for nearly a year and a half, the roadmap has not passed with ECOWAS members, who want the transition to be reduced to its bare minimum. In Mali, several formations - the Coordination of Movements, Associations and Sympathizers (CMAS) of Imam Dicko and the National Renaissance Party - also considered that this roadmap was not relevant. They consider it "unreasonable".
We are far from the schedule initially planned: indeed, it is at the end of February 2022 that the presidential election was to take place. Goïta therefore extended the transition period. And this, without consulting the different parties, provide the training that participated in these famous Assises de la refoundation. Last month, there was certainly a proposal to lengthen the transition. But only a year.
What if the arm wrestling initiated by Goïta was, in reality, only a strategy to be able to be in a position of strength in the discussions with ECOWAS? The West African body could indeed come out larger in the event of an extension of one and a half to two years of the transition and Goïta, for his part, would have succeeded in extending this period without too much difficulty.
But the military has a major advantage to play: public opinion does not seem to want to turn its back on them. Insecurity is one of the major concerns of the Malian people, who welcome the deterioration of relations between Mali and other foreign powers such as France.
But, despite its ineffectiveness, ECOWAS still weighs heavily in the debate. Alassane Ouattara has established himself as the main relay between the sub-regional body and Mali. He met, three days ago, Abdoulaye Diop, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Two days before the ex-president of Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan, travels to Bamako.
Goïta or ECOWAS, who will emerge victorious?
And Goïta's strategy seems to be working: faced with the desire to extend the transition by five years, ECOWAS is ready to review its conditions. On condition that a presidential election takes place, at the latest, at the end of the year 2022. After having banned Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maïga and the various ministers from travel. imposed a number of sanctions, Is ECOWAS still in a negotiating position?
Assimi Goïta knows it: if the Economic Community of West African States wants to bend it, it will have to do its part. By withdrawing the sanctions imposed on Mali? It is in any case a bet which can be a winner, but which remains risky. Because if the heads of state of ECOWAS were to increase the sanctions against Bamako, Mali would be even more isolated. Jeune Afrique also assures that ECOWAS wants to seize the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) to ask it to put Mali under the control of the BCEAO. By affecting the Malian economy, ECOWAS would then regain control of the discussions.