The G5 Sahel summit begins this Monday in Chad without French representation. The bet time is over, Emmanuel Macron has received the presidents of the five G5 Sahel states and France will decide its role in the rise of a war that has been going on for 7 years now. Will France have its colonial troops to satisfy its grumpy staff? Would it dare to leave its regional and European allies involved in the war against terrorism in the Sahelo-Saharan zone?
A proxy war
The semantics are muddled. Operation Barkhane alone represents, not to mention previous French military deployments, seven successive wars lost by France and its allies against terrorist groups in the Sahelo-Saharan strip. The enemy is stronger and more united and France has been negotiating with him for a year now.
No one can deny that recruiting at EIGS, AQM and GSIM has only won the argument of fighting the colonizer in the African context, these terrorist groups have seen their troops grow with each time that French interventionism causes civilian deaths.
For a Malian, Chadian, Nigerian or Burkinabé citizen, it doesn't matter who carries the weapon when his family is shot. Second, France's colonial past and the private interests of French companies in the region make the image of an allied France less likely.
Between Bouygues, Orange, Geocoton, Bolloré, Rougier, Areva and the 176 other French companies of the CIAN which have plundered the wealth of Africa for more than 30 years for some, it is difficult to imagine the French army fighting terrorism by Africa for humanitarian reasons and "the maintenance of bilateral relations between France and its African partners" ...
To be honest, it's no secret that there is no such thing as fairness in international relations. The summons of Emmanuel Macron of his "counterparts" from the African Sahel, followed by the coup de como about his absence from the G5S summit are only the manifestation of a French Government which makes astonishment to remind the countries concerned that they have an interest in being their cannon fodder in the war on terror.
Barkhane, American interests?
France's most important ally in Mali and neighboring countries has always been the United States of America. Africom's logistical support has enabled France to have some recent victories, such as the liquidation of Droukdel, Madani and El-Hassan.
However, since 2018, as France widened the circle of countries involved in Barkhane, Africom was gradually withdrawing, for 17 months, Africom went into radio silence: More information, more drones.
Then, Franco-American military collaboration in Africa resumed with a vengeance, following an order for arms placed by the French Ministry of the Armed Forces. The transaction was covered by the Italian-American company Beretta USA and other European representatives of American arms companies, such as BAE Systems and Leonardo, so as not to be told that the French military is buying its weapons out of the United States. Europe. Other, more exclusive weapons, such as jamming systems for armored vehicles and communication systems, or even PATRIOT missiles, were purchased directly from the American giant Raytheon Technologies.
- The American presence in Africa is more pronounced in the east of the continent, but Africom continues to assist the French army in order to control the logistical support of the EIGS present in Niger and Chad to Boko Haram troops in Nigeria and in Cameroon. A possible alliance between these historical partners would push the United States to invest troops in West Africa, which would not serve the interests of the current American government.
- If France reduces its presence in the Sahel, on the other hand, it would hurt its relationship with the United States. The geopolitical stake is considerable. Two nations have joined the race to plunder Africa: China and Russia. The latter conquered between 2009 and 2020 the place of the most important arms seller in Africa. China comes in third place. China has also increased the presence of its companies in Africa by 3700% in 10 years.
All of this clearly poses a threat to the interests of the United States and those of its allies invested in the region, notably France and Israel. The pressure exerted on the G5S countries therefore takes on its full meaning, it is a diplomatic war between East and West, the battlefield of which is sub-Saharan Africa.
Humanitarian issue
According to the Director of the African Sahel office of Human Rights Watch, Corinne Dufka: “The killings of civilians committed by soldiers as well as terrorists are fueling recruitment among armed groups and deepening the security crisis in the region. region ".
Several NGOs, in this case Human Rights Watch and the United Nations, called on the G5 Sahel nations and their partners, during the G5S summit, to ensure the discipline of counterterrorism operations and to report on abuses and crimes committed by soldiers as well as terrorists. In order to avoid further atrocities, human rights should be the focus of discussions during the summit according to the United Nations.
Since October 2019, there have been more than 600 murders of civilians committed by the security forces in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. As for the terrorist groups AQIM and EIGS, they committed in January 2021 the murder of more than 100 villagers in Niger, 41 in Mali and more than 350 in the BFA.
The G5 Sahel summit is also expected to address the refugee crisis caused by the recent attacks by EIGS in eastern Burkina Faso and by AQIM in western Niger. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, more than 57.000 people have had to leave their homes since the start of Operation Barkhane. The 2 main refugee camps, south-east of the BFA, have suffered 13 terrorist attacks in the past 5 months alone.
The question that arises is whether the member countries of the G5 Sahel should contribute troops for the protection of establishments of French companies, or establish and strengthen refugee camps near war zones?
The question is not really rhetorical, because it is far from being a non-choice for the G5S countries. Only the next few days will give us an answer.
The French army in Mali
By observing the context of the G5S summit and the various issues to be considered (security, political and diplomatic). The real question at the center of discussions at this summit will be the French military plan.
The subject was discussed during the meeting of the French Senate on February 9, 2021, no agreement was possible. In the executive branch either, since the October 2020 prisoner exchange, the Barkhane staff has been hostile towards its own government, releasing 200 terrorists into the wild without prior countermeasures or consultation with the military. caused a feeling of abandonment among the French military.
Following the presentation of the results of Operation Barkhane, General Marc Conruyt, commander of the operation declared that the military successes declared by the French Government were actions of opportunity. For his part, General François Lecointre (CEMA) said that Barkhane's success indicator should not be the number of terrorists killed, but the return of state institutions to regions conquered by terrorists.
These two statements clearly devalue a record that Macron presented as an extraordinary military conquest in Mali.
This disagreement between the general staff and the French government would explain why Macron, during his meeting with the heads of state of the G5 Sahel, insisted on the need for troop contributions from them. It should be remembered that Chad threatens to withdraw its troops deployed in Mali and Nigeria for a few months, one could speculate that it is exactly for this reason that Chad is mediating the positions of other States during this summit of the G5S.
The choice is therefore simple:
- If France contributes more troops, it gains the confidence of some of its military allies but could cause a diplomatic crisis with Mali, Burkina Faso, Russia and China.
- If the French government decides to reduce troops, by committing to support the Chadian, Malian and Burkinabé forces financially, that would amount to severing ties with the Barkhane staff and the United States.
We can expect that the decision will be taken in the coming weeks, and that it will depend on the progress of the G5 Sahel summit.