AU President Félix Tshisekedi will soon be in Addis Ababa, in a final attempt to ease tensions between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The President of the DRC and the African Union (AU), Félix Tshisekedi, will take off, most likely tomorrow, to Addis Ababa. He had started his tour with a visit to Khartoum, and then to Cairo. On Saturday, May 8, he met with al-Burhan, Sudanese head of state. The same day, he flew to Cairo, where he met Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the Egyptian president. Yesterday, he made a wide detour, very curious, in Zambia.
Very few details have been leaked as to Tshisekedi's first two meetings. However, it is undoubtedly trying to remedy the escalation of tensions between the three countries crossed by the Nile. The acceleration of the filling of the GERD at the end of March, by Ethiopia, launched hostilities. Then the Egyptian president held a press conference, where he multiplied the threats. Then, after an attempt at mediation by Tshisekedi failed, al-Sisi initiated an arms race.
The war effort spreading over East Africa
Earlier, during discussions on the same topic on April 6, Egypt began to curry favor with potential allies. As it happens, Uganda has entered into a military information exchange agreement with the Egyptian army. Then al-Sisi offered Sudan to finance two big development projects. Namely a border seaport between the two countries and an injection of funds in the Sudanese airline company.
For his part, Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian head of state, participated in the financing of two tripartite projects between Kenya, Somalia and Tanzania. He is currently in good relations with Eritrea, and supported by the Zionist entity, but relatively isolated. He would therefore try, according to analysts, to assemble a semblance of a diplomatic front to face Egyptian pressure.
However, in the meantime, Somalia, which has always been manipulated by Ethiopia and the United States, has seen its president cede power to its Prime Minister. Presumably Ethiopia is lonely again. The new epicenter of power in Somalia, Mohamed Hussein Roble, is more connected to the European Union than to the United States. And Ethiopia does not have much influence on Kenya and Tanzania.
Correspondingly, al-Sisi struck on three fronts. At first he bought 30 war planes from France, reestablishing a certain degree of friendship with Europe. Then he restored Russian-Egyptian diplomacy, by opening its borders to Russian tourists. Then, he is currently attempting a rapprochement with Turkey. The Turkish and Egyptian foreign ministries have held lengthy discussions in recent days.
#RDC 09.05.2021 |#Cairo
The Head of State, Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo, President of the@_AfricanUnion spoke last night with his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah Al Sissi, about the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. pic.twitter.com/5yMXUH80fv- DRC Presidency 🇨🇩 (@Presidence_RDC) May 8, 2021
The marriage of carp and rabbit
So the chessboard is in place, and al-Sisi is more threatening than ever. The Egyptian president is extremely belligerent, and Abiy Ahmed never makes concessions. Concretely, through his trip, Felix Tshisekedi could only hope to convince al-Burhan to remain neutral.
Yet Sudan is in a difficult situation. The Sudanese capital Khartoum is close to Tigray, where Eritrea and Ethiopia have the bulk of their armed forces. The waters of the Nile are also of great benefit to Sudan. The country currently suffers from the same problems as Egypt on this front. Furthermore, if an armed conflict does break out, although the possibility is surreal, Sudan would serve as a battleground.
Moreover, one might well wonder what Tshisekedi would have to offer diplomatically. Its past efforts have failed, and the African Union has been overlooked by international institutions for decades. Félix Tshisekedi does not have the same aura as his three predecessors either, especially in the countries concerned. So, on his current trip, he would not negotiate from a position of strength.
Finally, on the Ethiopian side as on the Egyptian side, we can see a propaganda effort on the media and social networks. Indeed, reminders of the relationship between Abiy Ahmed and Israel are legion. And allusions to s'al-Sisi brutality are equally so on the Ethiopian media. In short, the atmosphere is electrified. Nonetheless, Tshisekedi would likely be going to Addis Ababa soon, and this tour will unveil its secrets, or results, soon. File to follow.
#RDC 08.05.2021 |#Khartoum
The Head of State, Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi, President in office of the@_AfricanUnion paid a working visit to Sudan where he met with his counterpart, the President of the Transition Council, Abdel Fattah Abdelrahmane Al-Burhan. pic.twitter.com/OEypyeLSHv- DRC Presidency 🇨🇩 (@Presidence_RDC) May 8, 2021