In the aftermath of Tuesday's bombardment in Togoga, Tigray, which left 64 dead and 180 wounded, the Ethiopian Foreign Minister was in Russia looking for an ally.
The images of the bombing on Tuesday, June 22 shocked the whole world and further embarrassed the Ethiopian authorities. These last who confirmed targeting TPLF rebels, were denied by the gallery which show the corpses of civilians, including children. However, Abiy Ahmed's government had its eyes on Moscow. Indeed, the Ethiopian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Demeke Mekonnen, met Sergei Lavrov.
Ethiopia is under international pressure from all sides. It is precisely because of the massacres, like that of Togoga, that Ethiopian diplomacy spends its time justifying the exactions of the army. Since November 2020, Ethiopia has lost all of its historic allies one by one. At the top of the list: the United States, Switzerland, Israel and Kuwait. This put Addis Ababa facing a monopoly from China, financially and commercially. Not to mention the United Arab Emirates, India and Turkey, which remain minor economic partners in Ethiopia compared to other countries in the Horn of Africa.
Let us also recall that Russia, which hoped to see its entry on the regional scene materialize in Sudan, suffered a strategic defeat. The Sudanese state canceled the agreement on the Russian military port under construction on the Red Sea at the end of April. Russia has therefore accelerated the arms sales agenda in South Sudan. Which is seen as a direct response to the new alliance between France, Egypt and Sudan.
Ethiopia - Russia: A Secret Visit
Demeke Mekonnen's visit to Russia was unexpected. Ethiopia, like Russia, kept it carefully secret until Wednesday evening. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has declared Moscow's intention to deepen cooperation between the two countries.
“Our diplomatic coordination (between Ethiopia and Russia, therefore), has been mutually beneficial. Especially at the UN, where our countries support the same positions, ”Lavrov said. It is undeniable that China has acted as Ethiopia's “protector” in international forums. However, Russia has used its veto in the UN Security Council twice, in favor of Ethiopia.
However, several specialists, like Sofia Farhat, estimated that Russia was seeking to prevent the United States from addressing the Tigray issue. Which suits Moscow's tough diplomatic line. However, we therefore learn, via Sergei Lavrov, that Russia's position actively supported Ethiopia.
According to Andreww Korybko, of the Russian Council for International Affairs, Ethiopia would seek to "balance its disproportionate geostrategic dependence". Indeed, China weighs heavily on Ethiopia's debt. And its monopoly becomes more and more evident as Ethiopia becomes isolated.
The Russian stakes and an Ethiopian state less defensible
For Russia, Ethiopia represents an alternative to Sudan and Somalia. Where the latter is politically unstable, and very economically dependent on Turkey. Sudan has clearly sided with Egypt and Europe. The Sudanese state had also reneged on its promises to Moscow, unilaterally.
Sudan's return to the "25-year agreement" with Russia, dating from December, put a halt to the construction of the first Russian naval base in Africa. And with the entry on the scene from the IMF and France, offering $ 5 billion and rescheduling the remaining Sudanese debt. Russia did not invest in Sudan any longer.
However, Russia has interests both in Africa and in the Red Sea. And with the UK and US well established in eastern southern Africa, Moscow has little choice. Cooperation with Ethiopia is a unique opportunity for Russia. That the latter would not let pass.
However, Russia is very careful in its choice of African partners. And Ethiopia has been in the headlines for months. The hawkish government of Abiy Ahmed, and the massacres his army is committing in Tigray, represent a considerable diplomatic burden. Also, Ethiopian international communication was dismantled. At first, the Western press revealed the presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray and the crimes committed by Amhara troops. Then, as Ethiopia made statements about Tigray, American, and then European, diplomacy exposed the lies of some Ethiopian leaders. Then the UN released two reports on Ethiopia's “ethnic cleansing” in Tigray. Will Russia stand alongside Ethiopia if the number of civilians dead in Tigray reaches record figures?