While the Ukrainian crisis has worsened, the conflict between Europe and Russia is not exclusively military, but also gas. In the midst of this "gas war", NATO is counting on Algeria to arbitrate an energy battle that does not say its name.
Memory of French colonization, migration crisis, Western Sahara, Mali, Libya or even terrorism in the Sahel… Many issues are at the center of discussions between Algeria and Europe. But at the moment, it is gas that is at the center of the debates.
Since 2007, the Algerian-Russian gas alliance, signed between Sonatrach and Gazprom, has supplied Europe with more than 27% of its gas. Algeria also has eight regasification plants for its liquid natural gas (LNG), located in Spain and Portugal. Further north, Moscow controls 33% of natural gas in Europe, through gas pipelines crossing, in particular, Ukraine.
A quasi-monopoly of Algeria and Russia of the natural gas sector in Europe, which worries. Notably because we know the historic friendship that unites the two states. But above all, with the tensions between Paris and Algiers on the one hand, and between Russia and the West on the other, it is difficult to know how this energy battle will turn out.
Read: Algeria-Russia: trade, gas… and hypersonic weapons?
For Algeria, two positions are possible: strengthen the Russian position or put pressure on France, while getting closer to Europe. Whatever happens, Algiers should emerge a winner from the Ukrainian crisis.
France trapped?
The hour of reckoning has therefore come, especially for France, which has both imposed itself as an interlocutor with Moscow on behalf of NATO, but which had also refused, in the past, to strengthen gas cooperation between the Algeria and Europe. Indeed, NATO, which finds itself opposed to Russia in the Ukrainian file, hopes to resuscitate the Euro-Algerian gas project, the MidCat.
The Midi-Catalonia (MidCat) is a pipeline network that transports liquid gas and green hydrogen between Algeria and Spain. Since 1984, Algiers has been trying to extend the MidCat to Central Europe, especially to Germany. Only here, France has refused on several occasions, in particular in 2019, to validate this project.
But now, France finds itself almost forced by NATO to exchange with Russia about the Ukrainian crisis. Emmanuel Macron hoping to shine as the French election approaches, he must now position himself as a facilitator. What the French president knows is that Paris will also have to satisfy Algiers.
Except that Algeria is not known to be easy to maneuver diplomatically, despite the financial stakes that such a negotiation could generate. Especially since, between Algiers and Moscow, the friendship has been uninterrupted since 1963.
If the central section of the MidCat had to be put in place urgently to circumvent Russian threats, it is not certain that NATO would gain from the change. But one thing is certain, it is Paris that will have to make concessions, both economic and diplomatic.
Algerian diplomacy ever stronger
An explosive context for Paris, which had chosen, in recent months, not to ease tensions with Algeria. Is a return to calm possible? And, above all, will Algeria agree to listen to Emmanuel Macron?
Difficult to say because Algeria is not easy to maneuver: Algiers can afford to move forward on priority issues, without external pressure. For example, Algeria is omnipresent in the Malian crisis. Between the Rome peace agreement, the refusal to apply ECOWAS sanctions and Ramtane Lamamra's proposal to mediate the political transition in Bamako, Algeria can consider taking the leadership on the Malian file.
Algiers is also at the front on the Israeli issue: Algeria has played a major role in pushing back the deliberation of the African Union on the observer status of the Jewish State. On Western Sahara, the allies of the new head of Algerian diplomacy have undermined Moroccan claims, whether at the UN or the AU.
Concerning all these African files, Algeria is in perfect harmony with Russia. There is no doubt that Moscow's first ally in Africa will continue to adopt the same diplomatic line, namely to promote Third Worldism, the diplomacy of brotherhood and win-win economic and commercial relations.