The Earth has 8 billion inhabitants. A figure that will continue to evolve in the centuries to come, particularly in Africa.
While two centuries ago the Earth was home to 1 billion human beings, we have just passed the threshold of 8 billion inhabitants on our planet. By 2050, this number should even reach 10 billion. Will growth continue or is stabilization possible? And what about Africa?
In an article that asks if we are "too numerous", the anthropologist and demographer Gilles Pison recalls that "one of the great changes to come is the tremendous increase in the population of Africa which, including North Africa, could triple by the end of the century, from 1,4 billion inhabitants in 2022 to probably 2,5 billion in 2050”.
Today, one in six humans live in Africa. And in a century, this proportion should increase to more than one in three. "The increase should be particularly significant in Africa south of the Sahara where the population will increase from 1,2 billion inhabitants in 2022 to 3,4 billion in 2100 according to the United Nations medium scenario", continues the specialist.
Especially since Africa has thwarted the forecasts. “It was expected that its fertility would decline later than in Asia and Latin America, in relation to its lag in socio-economic development. But we imagined a simple shift in time, with a rate of decline similar to other regions of the South once this one started. This is what happened in North Africa and Southern Africa, but not in intertropical Africa where the decline in fertility, although started today, is taking place more slowly there, indicates Gilles Pison. Hence an increase in the projections for Africa, which could contain more than one inhabitant in three of the planet in 2100”.
The demographer brushes aside received ideas about Africa. While the decline in fertility in rural areas of Africa is currently slower than that observed a few decades ago in Asia and Latin America, "this is not due to a refusal of contraception" , he assures.
And Gilles Pison concludes: “Most rural families have certainly not yet converted to the two-child model, but they want to have fewer children and in particular more widely spaced. They are ready to use contraception for this purpose but do not benefit from appropriate services to achieve this. National birth control programs exist but are ineffective, lack resources, and above all suffer from a lack of motivation on the part of their managers and the personnel responsible for implementing them in the field”.